Ciudad de Bolívar
vs
Defensores De Belgrano
1 – 0 Full time
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Defensores De Belgrano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ciudad de Bolívar vs Defensores De Belgrano
| Probability | Ciudad de Bolívar | Draw | Defensores De Belgrano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.6% | 35.1% | 16.3% |
| Market | 34.2% | 33.7% | 32.0% |
| Final | 37.8% | 34.1% | 28.1% |
| Edge | +14.3% | +1.3% | -15.7% |
Why Ciudad de Bolívar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.10 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ciudad de Bolívar below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ciudad de Bolívar and Defensores De Belgrano expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.63
Ciudad de Bolívar and Defensores De Belgrano attack and defence ratings
Ciudad de Bolívar
Defensores De Belgrano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Defensores De Belgrano: result vs prediction
Ciudad de Bolívar 1 – 0 Defensores De Belgrano
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Defensores De Belgrano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 37.8% | 2.64 | +14.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 37.8% |
| Draw | 34.1% | |
| Defensores De Belgrano | 28.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.4% |
| No | 71.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ciudad de Bolívar win | 21.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.4% | |
| Loss | 51.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.8% |
| 1-0 | 20.5% | |
| 1-1 | 12.5% |
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Defensores De Belgrano stats
Ciudad de Bolívar and Defensores De Belgrano recent form
| Ciudad de Bolívar |
DLLLWD |
| Defensores De Belgrano |
LDLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ciudad de Bolívar and Defensores De Belgrano going into this match
Ciudad de Bolívar record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Defensores De Belgrano record
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Defensores De Belgrano head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Defensores De Belgrano | Ciudad de Bolívar | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ciudad de Bolívar vs Defensores De Belgrano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 33.7%, away 32.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.61 | 2.71 | 2.79 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 2.72 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 2.75 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 2.75 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.61 | 2.71 | 2.79 |
| Pinnacle | 2.76 | 2.78 | 2.92 |
| Superbet | 2.72 | 2.75 | 2.95 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 2.75 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 2.62 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .