Midland
vs
Nueva Chicago
2 – 0 Full time
Midland vs Nueva Chicago overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Midland vs Nueva Chicago
| Probability | Midland | Draw | Nueva Chicago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.5% | 24.6% | 9.9% |
| Market | 52.8% | 29.4% | 17.8% |
| Final | 55.9% | 28.2% | 15.8% |
| Edge | +12.7% | -4.8% | -7.9% |
Why Midland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.47.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Midland below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Midland and Nueva Chicago expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Midland and Nueva Chicago attack and defence ratings
Midland
Nueva Chicago
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Midland vs Nueva Chicago: result vs prediction
Midland 2 – 0 Nueva Chicago
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Midland vs Nueva Chicago markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Midland | 55.9% | 1.79 | +12.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Midland win | 38.4% | 2.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Midland | 55.9% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Nueva Chicago | 15.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.4% |
| No | 65.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Midland win | 38.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.5% | |
| Loss | 34.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.3% |
| 2-0 | 15.6% | |
| 0-0 | 11.7% |
Midland vs Nueva Chicago stats
Midland and Nueva Chicago recent form
| Midland |
LDDWDW |
| Nueva Chicago |
LLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Midland and Nueva Chicago going into this match
Midland record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nueva Chicago record
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 27 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Midland vs Nueva Chicago head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Nueva Chicago | Midland | Primera Nacional | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Midland vs Nueva Chicago odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 29.4%, away 17.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.12 | 5.15 |
| 888Sport | 1.75 | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.20 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.10 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.00 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.12 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 3.27 | 5.36 |
| Superbet | 1.74 | 3.25 | 5.25 |
| Unibet | 1.84 | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .