Aurora
vs
Universitario de Vinto
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aurora
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.84.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aurora is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto
| Probability | Aurora | Draw | Universitario de Vinto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.4% | 22.7% | 14.0% |
| Market | 62.5% | 21.4% | 16.1% |
| Final | 62.7% | 21.7% | 15.5% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +0.3% | -0.5% |
Why Aurora
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.84.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.5% per unit staked (our 62.7% × 1.57 − 1).
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto match preview
Aurora enters the match against Universitario de Vinto with a strong probability of winning at 68%, while the away team has a 12% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Aurora's expected goals stand at 1.99, significantly higher than Universitario de Vinto's 0.84, indicating a potential disparity in offensive performance.
In terms of recent form, Aurora has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Universitario de Vinto has shown some resilience with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their recent outings. Historically, Aurora has dominated their recent encounters, winning all three of the last head-to-head matches against Universitario de Vinto.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aurora and Universitario de Vinto expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Aurora and Universitario de Vinto attack and defence ratings
Aurora
Universitario de Vinto
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 62.7% | 1.59 | +0.2% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 62.7% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Universitario de Vinto | 15.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% |
| No | 50.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win | 39.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 36.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.7% |
| 1-1 | 10.8% | |
| 1-0 | 10.8% |
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto stats
Aurora and Universitario de Vinto recent form
| Aurora |
DWLDLW |
| Universitario de Vinto |
LLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aurora and Universitario de Vinto season so far
Aurora record
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Universitario de Vinto record
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Universitario de Vinto | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-08 | Aurora | Universitario de Vinto | Bolivia Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-06 | Universitario de Vinto | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.5%, draw 21.4%, away 16.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.44 | 4.15 | 5.85 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.35 | 6.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.43 | 4.15 | 5.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .