Bolívar
vs
The Strongest
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bolívar
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.13.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bolívar vs The Strongest overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bolívar vs The Strongest
| Probability | Bolívar | Draw | The Strongest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.9% | 20.6% | 16.5% |
| Market | 52.4% | 23.0% | 24.6% |
| Final | 55.0% | 22.4% | 22.6% |
| Edge | +2.6% | -0.6% | -2.0% |
Why Bolívar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bolívar below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.1% per unit staked (our 55.0% × 1.78 − 1).
Bolívar vs The Strongest match preview
Bolívar enters this match with strong recent form, having won their last six games, while The Strongest has a mixed record with four wins and two losses in their last six matches. According to our model, Bolívar has a 63% probability of winning, with the expected goals for Bolívar at 2.31 compared to The Strongest's 1.13. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Bolívar.
The statistical outlook suggests a high-scoring encounter, with a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability that both teams will score. In their last three head-to-head meetings, Bolívar has one win, The Strongest has one win, and there has been one draw, indicating a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bolívar and The Strongest expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.44
Bolívar and The Strongest attack and defence ratings
Bolívar
The Strongest
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 25 fixtures
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- Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro — team news & stats
- Always Ready vs ABB
- Guabirá v San Antonio Bulo Bulo — match page
- Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí — team news & stats
- Blooming v Oriente Petrolero — match page
- Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Bolívar vs The Strongest markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolívar | 55.0% | 1.82 | +2.6% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bolívar win | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolívar | 55.0% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| The Strongest | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolívar win | 41.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 37.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Bolívar vs The Strongest stats
Bolívar and The Strongest recent form
| Bolívar |
WWWWWW |
| The Strongest |
WLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bolívar and The Strongest season so far
Bolívar record
- They have won 17 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
The Strongest record
- They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bolívar vs The Strongest head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | The Strongest | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | The Strongest | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División | 2-3 |
| 2025-06-22 | Bolívar | The Strongest | Bolivia Primera División | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bolívar vs The Strongest odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.4%, draw 23.0%, away 24.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 3.92 | 3.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 4.20 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.92 | 3.72 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .