Gualberto Villarroel SJ
vs
Real Oruro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.25.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro
| Probability | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Draw | Real Oruro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.0% | 21.0% | 19.0% |
| Market | 46.3% | 24.2% | 29.5% |
| Final | 49.7% | 23.4% | 26.9% |
| Edge | +3.4% | -0.8% | -2.6% |
Why Gualberto Villarroel SJ
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.25.
- The market prices Gualberto Villarroel SJ below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.5% per unit staked (our 49.7% × 2.00 − 1).
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro match preview
Gualberto Villarroel SJ is favored to win against Real Oruro with a probability of 61%, while the chances of a draw stand at 21% and Real Oruro at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expected goals for Gualberto Villarroel SJ are 2.20, compared to Real Oruro's 1.10, indicating a strong offensive outlook for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Gualberto Villarroel SJ has recorded a mixed bag of results, with three losses in their last six matches (W-L-W-L-L-L), while Real Oruro has also struggled, managing only one win in their last six (D-L-W-W-L-L). The head-to-head record shows Gualberto Villarroel SJ has not won against Real Oruro in their last three encounters, with two draws and one loss.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Real Oruro expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.55
Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Real Oruro attack and defence ratings
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Real Oruro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 49.7% | 2.01 | +3.4% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.0% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 49.7% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Real Oruro | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% |
| No | 35.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ win | 38.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 40.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro stats
Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Real Oruro recent form
| Gualberto Villarroel SJ |
LWLWLL |
| Real Oruro |
DLWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Real Oruro season so far
Gualberto Villarroel SJ record
- They have won 4 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Real Oruro record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Real Oruro | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Copa de la División Profesional | 1-0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Real Oruro | Copa de la División Profesional | 4-1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Real Oruro | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Bolivia Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Real Oruro | Torneo Amistoso de Verano | 3-2 |
| 2026-02-01 | Real Oruro | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Torneo Amistoso de Verano | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Real Oruro | Copa de la División Profesional | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-01 | Real Oruro | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Bolivia Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Real Oruro | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Copa de la División Profesional | 4-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Real Oruro | Bolivia Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-14 | Real Oruro | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Nacional B | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.3%, draw 24.2%, away 29.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.68 | 3.08 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.90 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.68 | 3.02 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .