Independiente Petrolero
vs
Real Tomayapo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Independiente Petrolero
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.70.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Independiente Petrolero is the favourite, not a value bet.
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo
| Probability | Independiente Petrolero | Draw | Real Tomayapo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.1% | 29.6% | 17.3% |
| Market | 55.4% | 23.1% | 21.5% |
| Final | 54.9% | 24.7% | 20.4% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +1.6% | -1.1% |
Why Independiente Petrolero
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.70.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (our 54.9% × 1.67 − 1).
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo match preview
Independiente Petrolero faces Real Tomayapo in a matchup where the home side holds a 54% probability of winning, while a draw is at 25% and Real Tomayapo at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.42 for Independiente Petrolero and 0.70 for Real Tomayapo.
In terms of recent form, Independiente Petrolero has recorded two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Real Tomayapo has managed one win, two draws, and three losses in the same period. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Independiente Petrolero has secured six wins compared to Real Tomayapo's three, indicating a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Independiente Petrolero and Real Tomayapo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Independiente Petrolero and Real Tomayapo attack and defence ratings
Independiente Petrolero
Real Tomayapo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Petrolero | 54.9% | 1.82 | -0.6% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Petrolero | 54.9% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Real Tomayapo | 20.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.4% |
| No | 60.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente Petrolero win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-1 | 13.1% |
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo stats
Independiente Petrolero and Real Tomayapo recent form
| Independiente Petrolero |
DWDLLL |
| Real Tomayapo |
LLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente Petrolero and Real Tomayapo season so far
Independiente Petrolero record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Real Tomayapo record
- They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Independiente Petrolero | Real Tomayapo | Copa de la División Profesional | 5-1 |
| 2026-09-01 | Real Tomayapo | Independiente Petrolero | Copa de la División Profesional | 3-0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Real Tomayapo | Independiente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Independiente Petrolero | Real Tomayapo | Torneo Amistoso de Verano | 5-2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Real Tomayapo | Independiente Petrolero | Torneo Amistoso de Verano | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Real Tomayapo | Independiente Petrolero | Copa de la División Profesional | 3-6 |
| 2025-09-30 | Independiente Petrolero | Real Tomayapo | Copa de la División Profesional | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Independiente Petrolero | Real Tomayapo | Bolivia Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Real Tomayapo | Independiente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División | 3-3 |
| 2024-12-04 | Independiente Petrolero | Real Tomayapo | Primera División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.4%, draw 23.1%, away 21.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 3.96 | 4.24 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.96 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 4.12 | 4.06 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .