Bolívar
vs
Universitario de Vinto
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bolívar
3 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 0.71.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto
| Probability | Bolívar | Draw | Universitario de Vinto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83.4% | 11.6% | 5.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 83.4% | 11.6% | 5.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Bolívar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto match preview
Bolívar enters this match with a strong performance record, having won their last six games. Their expected goals for this match are 3.09, indicating a dominant offensive capability, while Universitario de Vinto has an expected goals figure of just 0.71. The model predicts a high likelihood of goals, with a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a most likely scoreline of 3-0, occurring at an 11% probability.
In terms of match probabilities, Bolívar is heavily favored with an 83% chance of winning, while Universitario de Vinto stands at just 5%. Recent form shows Universitario de Vinto has had mixed results, winning three of their last six matches but struggling with consistency. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters shows one win for each team and one draw, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bolívar and Universitario de Vinto expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.80
Bolívar and Universitario de Vinto attack and defence ratings
Bolívar
Universitario de Vinto
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolívar | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.0% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bolívar win | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolívar | 83.4% |
| Draw | 11.6% | |
| Universitario de Vinto | 5.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 88.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 16.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolívar win | 66.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 16.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 11.0% |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | |
| 4-0 | 8.5% |
Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto stats
Bolívar and Universitario de Vinto recent form
| Bolívar |
WWWWWW |
| Universitario de Vinto |
WLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bolívar and Universitario de Vinto season so far
Bolívar record
- They have won 15 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Universitario de Vinto record
- They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Universitario de Vinto | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-03 | Bolívar | Universitario de Vinto | Bolivia Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-24 | Universitario de Vinto | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.