Nacional Potosí
vs
Bolívar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bolívar
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar
| Probability | Nacional Potosí | Draw | Bolívar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.8% | 25.0% | 42.1% |
| Market | 22.0% | 23.5% | 54.6% |
| Final | 24.7% | 23.9% | 51.5% |
| Edge | +10.9% | +1.6% | -12.4% |
Why Bolívar
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar match preview
Nacional Potosí faces Bolívar in a match where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter. Our model assigns a 33% chance of a Nacional Potosí victory, a 25% likelihood of a draw, and a 42% probability that Bolívar will come out on top. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, with expected goals of 1.52 for Nacional Potosí and 1.75 for Bolívar.
Recent form indicates a stark contrast between the teams, as Nacional Potosí has recorded two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Bolívar boasts an impressive six consecutive wins. In their last three head-to-head meetings, Nacional Potosí has not secured a win, with two draws and one victory for Bolívar. The model also suggests a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nacional Potosí and Bolívar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Nacional Potosí and Bolívar attack and defence ratings
Nacional Potosí
Bolívar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 22 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolívar | 51.5% | 1.94 | -12.4% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional Potosí | 24.7% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Bolívar | 51.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.5% |
| No | 34.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolívar win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 57.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar stats
Nacional Potosí and Bolívar recent form
| Nacional Potosí |
DLWWLW |
| Bolívar |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nacional Potosí and Bolívar season so far
Nacional Potosí record
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
Bolívar record
- They have won 15 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Bolívar | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-22 | Bolívar | Nacional Potosí | Copa de la División Profesional | 1-4 |
| 2025-12-20 | Nacional Potosí | Bolívar | Copa de la División Profesional | 0-2 |
| 2025-12-05 | Bolívar | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División | 5-2 |
| 2025-07-10 | Bolívar | Nacional Potosí | Copa de la División Profesional | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Nacional Potosí | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-26 | Nacional Potosí | Bolívar | Copa de la División Profesional | 3-0 |
| 2024-11-24 | Bolívar | Nacional Potosí | Primera División | 5-3 |
| 2024-07-28 | Nacional Potosí | Bolívar | Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-21 | Bolívar | Nacional Potosí | Primera División | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.9%, draw 22.9%, away 55.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.24 | 3.88 | 1.64 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 4.15 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.65 |
| Marathonbet | 4.15 | 3.88 | 1.62 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .