Bolivia Primera División
·
Full time
·Apertura - 21
Aurora
vs
Nacional Potosí
2 – 2 Full time
| 16′ | Alan Miguel Terrazas Castro | ||
| 21′ | P. Azogue | ||
| 36′ | P. Azogue | ||
| 45′ | M. Tomianovic | ||
| 45′ | leandro barro | ||
| 45′ | Ivan HuayhuataI. Vidaurre | ||
| 45′ | Ronaldo SánchezErwin Junior Sanchez | ||
| 45′ | Michael RangelHarrison Mojica | ||
| 59′ | Alan Miguel Terrazas CastroHenry Vaca | ||
| 61′ | Schneider Peña VacaWeslen Junior | ||
| 69′ | Óscar Damián Villalba | ||
| 69′ | Rodrigo Ramallo | ||
| 73′ | Weslen Junior | ||
| 75′ | Harrison Mojica | ||
| 79′ | Jair Torrico | ||
| 82′ | D. HoyosOscar Baldomar | ||
| 82′ | Weslen JuniorTommy Tobar | ||
| 89′ | Maximiliano Núñezjuan orellana | ||
| 89′ | M. TomianovicJuan Batista | ||
| 89′ | Harrison MojicaMoisés Eduardo Velazco Gomez | ||
| 90′ | Juan Batista |
Aurora
54%
Draw
24%
Nacional Potosí
22%
Match stats
| 31 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Offsides | 0 |
| 6 | Saves | 5 |
| 316 | Accurate passes | 221 |
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aurora vs Nacional Potosí
| Probability | Aurora | Draw | Nacional Potosí |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 25.9% | 23.0% |
| Market | 54.3% | 23.8% | 21.9% |
| Final | 53.5% | 24.3% | 22.2% |
| Edge | -0.8% | +0.5% | +0.3% |
Why Aurora
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.11.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
7%
Aurora and Nacional Potosí expected goals
Aurora
1.74
Nacional Potosí
1.11
Total expected goals: 2.85
Aurora and Nacional Potosí attack and defence ratings
Aurora
Attack
0.91 -9%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Nacional Potosí
Attack
0.93 -7%
Defence
0.92 -8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí: result vs prediction
Aurora 2 – 2 Nacional Potosí
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 53.5% | 1.87 | -0.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 53.5% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Nacional Potosí | 22.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% |
| No | 43.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí stats
Aurora and Nacional Potosí recent form
| Aurora |
LWWDDL |
| Nacional Potosí |
LWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aurora and Nacional Potosí going into this match
Aurora record
- They have won 7 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Nacional Potosí record
- They have won 8 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 20 matches.
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Aurora wins
2Draws
5Nacional Potosí wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Nacional Potosí | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Aurora | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-16 | Nacional Potosí | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2024-12-17 | Aurora | Nacional Potosí | Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Nacional Potosí | Aurora | Primera División | 1-3 |
| 2024-03-12 | Aurora | Nacional Potosí | Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2024-03-03 | Nacional Potosí | Aurora | Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-22 | Nacional Potosí | Aurora | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-19 | Aurora | Nacional Potosí | Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2022-09-09 | Aurora | Nacional Potosí | Primera División | 1-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.3%, draw 23.8%, away 21.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.78 | 4.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.85 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.78 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.83 | 3.94 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.67 ▲ +0.06
X
3.81 ▼ -0.03
2
4.14 ▼ -0.33
12 snapshots recorded, from .