Aurora
vs
Nacional Potosí
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aurora
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aurora vs Nacional Potosí
| Probability | Aurora | Draw | Nacional Potosí |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 25.9% | 22.9% |
| Market | 56.3% | 23.4% | 20.3% |
| Final | 55.0% | 24.0% | 20.9% |
| Edge | -5.1% | +2.5% | +2.6% |
Why Aurora
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.10.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí match preview
Aurora faces Nacional Potosí in a matchup where the probabilities favor Aurora at 51% for a win, compared to 23% for Nacional Potosí and a 26% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Aurora, with a 10% probability. The expectation for over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 54%, while both teams are projected to score at a rate of 56%.
Recent form shows Aurora with a mixed record of L-W-W-D-D-L, while Nacional Potosí has been more consistent with L-W-W-L-W-W. In their last three encounters, Nacional Potosí has dominated with three wins against Aurora. The expected goals for Aurora are 1.74, while Nacional Potosí is projected at 1.10, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aurora and Nacional Potosí expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Aurora and Nacional Potosí attack and defence ratings
Aurora
Nacional Potosí
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 55.0% | 1.82 | -5.1% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 55.0% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Nacional Potosí | 20.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.1% |
| No | 43.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí stats
Aurora and Nacional Potosí recent form
| Aurora |
LWWDDL |
| Nacional Potosí |
LWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aurora and Nacional Potosí season so far
Aurora record
- They have won 7 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nacional Potosí record
- They have won 8 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Nacional Potosí | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Aurora | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-16 | Nacional Potosí | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.3%, draw 23.4%, away 20.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 3.84 | 4.54 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 3.84 | 4.45 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .