Universitario de Vinto
vs
Real Oruro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universitario de Vinto
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro
| Probability | Universitario de Vinto | Draw | Real Oruro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.6% | 21.3% | 18.1% |
| Market | 53.7% | 23.1% | 23.2% |
| Final | 55.4% | 22.7% | 21.9% |
| Edge | +7.0% | -1.8% | -5.2% |
Why Universitario de Vinto
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universitario de Vinto below the model: +7.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro match preview
Universitario de Vinto is favored to win against Real Oruro with a 61% probability, while a draw stands at 21% and Real Oruro at 18%. The expected goals for Universitario de Vinto is 2.24 compared to Real Oruro's 1.17, indicating a strong offensive performance anticipated from the home side. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring at a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Universitario de Vinto has recorded a mixed performance with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Real Oruro has struggled with one win and five losses. Historically, in their last three encounters, Universitario de Vinto has not secured a win, with two victories for Real Oruro and one draw. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 66%, and both teams scoring is at 63%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universitario de Vinto and Real Oruro expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.42
Universitario de Vinto and Real Oruro attack and defence ratings
Universitario de Vinto
Real Oruro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario de Vinto | 55.4% | 1.80 | +7.0% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario de Vinto | 55.4% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Real Oruro | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitario de Vinto win | 39.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 39.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro stats
Universitario de Vinto and Real Oruro recent form
| Universitario de Vinto |
DWLWLL |
| Real Oruro |
LLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universitario de Vinto and Real Oruro season so far
Universitario de Vinto record
- They have won 5 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 20 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Real Oruro record
- They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Real Oruro | Universitario de Vinto | Bolivia Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Universitario de Vinto | Real Oruro | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Real Oruro | Universitario de Vinto | Friendlies Clubs | 4-3 |
| 2025-10-29 | Real Oruro | Universitario de Vinto | Copa de la División Profesional | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Universitario de Vinto | Real Oruro | Copa de la División Profesional | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-22 | Universitario de Vinto | Real Oruro | Bolivia Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-05 | Real Oruro | Universitario de Vinto | Bolivia Primera División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.7%, draw 23.1%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 3.95 | 3.93 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.65 | 3.95 | 3.85 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .