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Bolivia Primera División · Full time ·Apertura - 19

Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero

3 – 1 Full time

12′J. Calicho
44′H. Rodriguez
46′L. MontenegroD. Morales
48′J. Calicho
55′Jose Pinto
56′R. CardozoA. Mercado
64′J. Calicho
65′J. CalichoD. Torrico
66′G. AlvarezJeferson Carioca
70′A. Mercado
74′G. Mendoza
74′H. DorregoF. Pasadore
79′G. CristaldoR. E. Rocabado Concha
80′L. Crescencio
86′Esdras MendozaD. Vargas
87′O. BlancoB. Calderon
90′F. Pasadore
90′G. Cuellar

Referee: B. Rueda

Universitario de Vinto 47%
Draw 26%
Independiente Petrolero 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

26 Shots 11
11 Shots on target 3
52 Possession % 48
7 Corners 3
16 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2
3 Saves 8
276 Accurate passes 232

Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUniversitario de VintoDrawIndependiente Petrolero
Model42.8%27.9%29.2%
Market48.8%25.4%25.8%
Final47.3%26.0%26.7%
Edge-6.0%+2.6%+3.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Universitario de Vinto

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.19.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Universitario ↓ / Independiente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 7% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Universitario de Vinto and Independiente Petrolero expected goals

Universitario de Vinto 1.50
Independiente Petrolero 1.19

Total expected goals: 2.69

Universitario de Vinto and Independiente Petrolero attack and defence ratings

Universitario de Vinto

Attack 0.69 -31%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Independiente Petrolero

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero: result vs prediction

Universitario de Vinto 3 – 1 Independiente Petrolero

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 19 fixtures

Bolivia Primera División

Before and after this match

Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Universitario de Vinto 47.3% 2.11 -6.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.5% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.4% 1.80 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.0% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.0% 1.76 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Universitario de Vinto47.3%
Draw26.0%
Independiente Petrolero26.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%
Both teams to scoreYes55.4%
No44.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.3%
12 (either side)74.0%
X2 (draw or away)52.7%
Handicap -1Universitario de Vinto win21.9%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss57.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.3%
2-19.1%
1-08.9%

Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero stats

Universitario de Vinto and Independiente Petrolero recent form

newest first
Universitario de Vinto LWLLLL
Independiente Petrolero LWLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Universitario de Vinto and Independiente Petrolero going into this match

league record before kick-off

Universitario de Vinto record

  • They have won 4 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 18 matches.

Independiente Petrolero record

  • They have won 7 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 18 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Universitario de Vinto wins 1Draws 5Independiente Petrolero wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25Independiente PetroleroUniversitario de VintoBolivia Primera División2-1
2025-12-10Universitario de VintoIndependiente PetroleroBolivia Primera División2-3
2025-07-15Independiente PetroleroUniversitario de VintoCopa de la División Profesional0-1
2025-07-12Independiente PetroleroUniversitario de VintoBolivia Primera División1-1
2025-06-24Universitario de VintoIndependiente PetroleroCopa de la División Profesional3-0
2024-12-09Independiente PetroleroUniversitario de VintoPrimera División3-2
2024-08-17Universitario de VintoIndependiente PetroleroPrimera División1-2
2024-03-13Independiente PetroleroUniversitario de VintoPrimera División1-0
2024-03-03Universitario de VintoIndependiente PetroleroPrimera División2-1
2023-10-22Independiente PetroleroUniversitario de VintoPrimera División0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.0%, draw 25.2%, away 25.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.81 3.56 3.76
Bet365 1.85 3.70 3.50
BetVictor 1.83 3.70 3.60
Betano 1.90 3.60 3.50
Betfair 1.90 3.60 3.40
Dafabet 1.92 3.65 3.50
Marathonbet 1.80 3.55 3.66
Pinnacle 1.78 3.56 3.46
SBO 2.03 3.18 2.92
Unibet 1.64 3.70 4.00
William Hill 1.91 3.30 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.85 ▼ -0.05
X 3.56 ▼ -0.08
2 3.50 ▲ +0.11

8 snapshots recorded, from .