Wiliete
vs
Mamelodi Sundowns
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mamelodi Sundowns
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns
| Probability | Wiliete | Draw | Mamelodi Sundowns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.8% | 27.0% | 38.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.8% | 27.0% | 38.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mamelodi Sundowns
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns match preview
Wiliete faces Mamelodi Sundowns in the CAF Champions League, with kickoff set for October 18, 2026. The model indicates a close contest, giving Wiliete a 35% chance of winning, while Mamelodi Sundowns is slightly favored at 38%. The predicted scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to an exciting match, with a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form suggests contrasting momentum; Wiliete has recorded two wins and two losses in their last four matches, while Mamelodi Sundowns remains unbeaten with six consecutive results, including four wins. The expected goals for Wiliete stand at 1.42, while Mamelodi Sundowns has a marginally higher expectation at 1.49, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wiliete and Mamelodi Sundowns expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Wiliete and Mamelodi Sundowns attack and defence ratings
Wiliete
Mamelodi Sundowns
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wiliete | 34.8% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 38.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% |
| No | 40.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mamelodi Sundowns win | 19.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 61.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns stats
Wiliete and Mamelodi Sundowns recent form
| Wiliete |
WWLL |
| Mamelodi Sundowns |
DWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.