Richards Bay
vs
Mamelodi Sundowns
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mamelodi Sundowns
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
| Probability | Richards Bay | Draw | Mamelodi Sundowns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.1% | 16.2% | 71.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 12.1% | 16.2% | 71.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mamelodi Sundowns
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns match preview
Richards Bay faces Mamelodi Sundowns in a Premier Soccer League match with a significant disparity in predicted outcomes. According to our model, Richards Bay has a 12% chance of winning, while Mamelodi Sundowns is favored at 72%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability, and there is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Recent form shows Richards Bay struggling with three consecutive losses and only two draws in their last six matches. In contrast, Mamelodi Sundowns has been in excellent form, recording five wins and one draw in the same period. Expected goals suggest Richards Bay will score 1.16, while Mamelodi Sundowns is projected to net 2.86 goals. Both teams have a 65% probability of scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.02
Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns attack and defence ratings
Richards Bay
Mamelodi Sundowns
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.9% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Mamelodi Sundowns win | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Richards Bay | 12.1% |
| Draw | 16.2% | |
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 71.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% |
| No | 34.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 28.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mamelodi Sundowns win | 52.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 28.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.5% |
| 1-3 | 8.1% | |
| 0-2 | 7.3% |
Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns stats
Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns recent form
| Richards Bay |
LLLDDD |
| Mamelodi Sundowns |
DWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns season so far
Richards Bay record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Mamelodi Sundowns record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Richards Bay | Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League | 4-1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Richards Bay | 8 Cup | 4-0 |
| 2025-04-30 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League | 3-0 |
| 2024-12-28 | Richards Bay | Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League | 0-2 |
| 2024-04-02 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League | 1-0 |
| 2023-08-23 | Richards Bay | Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-25 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-07 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Richards Bay | Cup | 3-2 |
| 2023-01-06 | Richards Bay | Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.