China Super League
·
Full time
·Matchday 24
Beijing Guoan
vs
Yunnan Yukun
3 – 3 Full time
Beijing Guoan
71%
Draw
16%
Yunnan Yukun
13%
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun
| Probability | Beijing Guoan | Draw | Yunnan Yukun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.1% | 15.9% | 12.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 71.1% | 15.9% | 12.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Beijing Guoan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
93%
3+ goals
79%
No goals
2%
Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun expected goals
Beijing Guoan
2.94
Yunnan Yukun
1.27
Total expected goals: 4.21
Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun attack and defence ratings
Beijing Guoan
Attack
1.45 +45%
Defence
0.75 -25%
Yunnan Yukun
Attack
1.24 +24%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun: result vs prediction
Beijing Guoan 3 – 3 Yunnan Yukun
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
- Wuhan Three Towns v Tianjin Teda — match page
- Chengdu Better City vs Shanghai Shenhua — team news & stats
- Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown
- Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng — team news & stats
- Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye
- SHANGHAI SIPG v Qingdao Jonoon — match page
- Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beijing Guoan | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.1% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beijing Guoan | 71.1% |
| Draw | 15.9% | |
| Yunnan Yukun | 12.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% |
| No | 31.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win | 52.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 29.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.1% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-0 | 6.4% |
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun stats
Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun recent form
| Beijing Guoan |
WWWWDD |
| Yunnan Yukun |
WWLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun going into this match
Beijing Guoan record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yunnan Yukun record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
2Beijing Guoan wins
1Draws
0Yunnan Yukun wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Yunnan Yukun | Beijing Guoan | China Super League | 3-3 |
| 2025-06-30 | Beijing Guoan | Yunnan Yukun | China Super League | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Yunnan Yukun | Beijing Guoan | China Super League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.