China Super League
·
Full time
·Matchday 25
Dalian Zhixing
vs
Beijing Guoan
1 – 1 Full time
Dalian Zhixing
30%
Draw
25%
Beijing Guoan
46%
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan
| Probability | Dalian Zhixing | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.0% | 24.0% | 51.0% |
| Market | 31.5% | 24.8% | 43.8% |
| Final | 29.9% | 24.6% | 45.6% |
| Edge | -6.4% | -0.7% | +7.2% |
Why Beijing Guoan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Beijing Guoan below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan expected goals
Dalian Zhixing
1.32
Beijing Guoan
1.94
Total expected goals: 3.27
Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan attack and defence ratings
Dalian Zhixing
Attack
0.88 -12%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Beijing Guoan
Attack
1.47 +47%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan: result vs prediction
Dalian Zhixing 1 – 1 Beijing Guoan
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng
- Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG — team news & stats
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns
- Tianjin Teda v Qingdao Youth Island — match page
- Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun — team news & stats
- Chengdu Better City vs Shenyang Urban
- Henan Jianye v Chongqing Tongliang Long — match page
Before and after this match
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beijing Guoan | 45.6% | 2.19 | +7.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29.9% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Beijing Guoan | 45.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% |
| No | 36.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win | 29.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.2% |
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan stats
Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan recent form
| Dalian Zhixing |
WDLWDL |
| Beijing Guoan |
DWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan going into this match
Dalian Zhixing record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beijing Guoan record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
0Dalian Zhixing wins
1Draws
3Beijing Guoan wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Beijing Guoan | Dalian Zhixing | China Super League | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Beijing Guoan | Dalian Zhixing | China Super League | 4-2 |
| 2025-06-21 | Dalian Zhixing | Beijing Guoan | FA Cup | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Dalian Zhixing | Beijing Guoan | China Super League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.5%, draw 24.8%, away 43.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.82 | 3.80 | 2.12 |
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 4.00 | 2.13 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.90 | 2.19 |
| Marathonbet | 2.96 | 3.88 | 2.07 |
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.99 | 2.15 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.34 | 1.98 |
| Superbet | 2.95 | 3.65 | 2.12 |
| Unibet | 3.15 | 3.70 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.95 ▼ -0.04
X
3.75 ▼ -0.04
2
2.12 ▲ +0.02
10 snapshots recorded, from .