Vlašim
vs
Ústí nad Labem
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vlašim
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.32.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Vlašim vs Ústí nad Labem overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vlašim vs Ústí nad Labem
| Probability | Vlašim | Draw | Ústí nad Labem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.5% | 25.2% | 27.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.5% | 25.2% | 27.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Vlašim
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Vlašim vs Ústí nad Labem match preview
Vlašim faces Ústí nad Labem in an FNL matchup with Vlašim holding a 48% probability of winning, while Ústí nad Labem stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Vlašim, with an expected goals tally of 1.81 for Vlašim and 1.30 for Ústí nad Labem. Recent form shows Vlašim with three wins and two losses in their last five matches, whereas Ústí nad Labem has two draws, two losses, and one win.
Both teams have shown potential for scoring, with a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score. In their last two encounters, each team has secured one victory, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vlašim and Ústí nad Labem expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.11
Vlašim and Ústí nad Labem attack and defence ratings
Vlašim
Ústí nad Labem
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vlašim vs Ústí nad Labem markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vlašim | 47.5% | 2.10 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vlašim | 47.5% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Ústí nad Labem | 27.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% |
| No | 37.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vlašim win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 52.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 7.2% |
Vlašim vs Ústí nad Labem stats
Vlašim and Ústí nad Labem recent form
| Vlašim |
LWWWLW |
| Ústí nad Labem |
LDLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vlašim and Ústí nad Labem season so far
Vlašim record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Ústí nad Labem record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vlašim vs Ústí nad Labem head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Vlašim | Ústí nad Labem | FNL | 7-2 |
| 2025-07-25 | Ústí nad Labem | Vlašim | FNL | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.