Denmark 1. Division
·
·Matchday 11
HB Koge
vs
AB Copenhagen
Garuda Lions Prediction: AB Copenhagen
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
HB Koge
27%
Draw
26%
AB Copenhagen
47%
Chance AB Copenhagen wins
47%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
93%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
60%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
9% of simulated outcomes
HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen
| Probability | HB Koge | Draw | AB Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.1% | 26.1% | 46.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.1% | 26.1% | 46.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AB Copenhagen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
55%
No goals
7%
HB Koge and AB Copenhagen expected goals
HB Koge
1.14
AB Copenhagen
1.73
Total expected goals: 2.87
HB Koge and AB Copenhagen attack and defence ratings
HB Koge
Attack
1.01 +1%
Defence
1.08 +8%
AB Copenhagen
Attack
1.21 +21%
Defence
0.77 -23%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AB Copenhagen | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HB Koge | 27.1% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| AB Copenhagen | 46.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% |
| No | 40.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | AB Copenhagen win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 49.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-1 | 7.7% |
HB Koge vs AB Copenhagen stats
HB Koge and AB Copenhagen recent form
| HB Koge |
WDDDDL |
| AB Copenhagen |
WWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HB Koge and AB Copenhagen season so far
HB Koge record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
AB Copenhagen record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.