AFC Wimbledon
vs
Stevenage
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stevenage
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
| Probability | AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.2% | 33.0% | 41.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 25.2% | 33.0% | 41.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage attack and defence ratings
AFC Wimbledon
Stevenage
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | 2.49 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Wimbledon | 25.2% |
| Draw | 33.0% | |
| Stevenage | 41.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.2% |
| No | 59.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stevenage win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 61.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 14.9% |
| 1-1 | 14.5% | |
| 0-1 | 14.4% |
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage stats
AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage recent form
| AFC Wimbledon |
DDWWLW |
| Stevenage |
LWWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage season so far
AFC Wimbledon record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Stevenage record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Stevenage | AFC Wimbledon | League One | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-26 | AFC Wimbledon | Stevenage | League One | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.0%, draw 30.2%, away 37.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.10 | 2.48 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.10 | 2.47 |
| Marathonbet | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.96 | 3.18 | 2.49 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .