Montpellier
vs
PAU
1 – 0 Full time
| 51′ | Abdel Hakim Abdallah | ||
| 54′ | Julien Laporte | ||
| 60′ | Cheikh Fall | ||
| 63′ | Grégory AyemDaryll Benlahlou | ||
| 63′ | Daylam MeddahThéo Chennahi | ||
| 63′ | Babacar LeyeJeremy Sebas | ||
| 71′ | Lorenzo RajotLuan Gadegbeku | ||
| 72′ | Theo Sainte Luce | ||
| 77′ | Hacene BenaliBilal Brahimi | ||
| 77′ | Cheikh FallTom Saettel | ||
| 77′ | Tom PouillyMathys Tourraine | ||
| 78′ | Yaël Mouanga BoudzoumouHichem Abderrebi | ||
| 89′ | Hichem Abderrebi | ||
| 90′ | Luan Gadegbeku |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 74 | Possession % | 26 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 663 | Accurate passes | 186 |
Montpellier vs PAU overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Montpellier vs PAU
| Probability | Montpellier | Draw | PAU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 28.9% | 18.5% |
| Market | 51.9% | 26.1% | 22.0% |
| Final | 52.1% | 26.8% | 21.1% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +2.8% | -3.5% |
Why Montpellier
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Montpellier and PAU expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Montpellier and PAU attack and defence ratings
Montpellier
PAU
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Montpellier vs PAU: result vs prediction
Montpellier 1 – 0 PAU
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Montpellier vs PAU markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montpellier | 52.1% | 1.92 | +0.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montpellier | 52.1% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| PAU | 21.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.9% |
| No | 57.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Montpellier win | 27.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.3% |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | |
| 0-0 | 11.7% |
Montpellier vs PAU stats
Montpellier and PAU recent form
| Montpellier |
LDWWDD |
| PAU |
DDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Montpellier and PAU going into this match
Montpellier record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
PAU record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Montpellier vs PAU head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | PAU | Montpellier | Ligue 2 | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Montpellier | PAU | Ligue 2 | 0-1 |
| 2023-01-06 | PAU | Montpellier | Coupe de France | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Montpellier vs PAU odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.4%, draw 26.9%, away 22.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.80 | 3.58 | 4.30 |
| 888Sport | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.45 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.58 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.63 | 4.41 |
| SBO | 1.86 | 3.05 | 3.52 |
| Superbet | 1.92 | 3.45 | 4.15 |
| Unibet | 1.89 | 3.55 | 3.90 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .