Rodez vs PAU overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rodez vs PAU
| Probability | Rodez | Draw | PAU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.7% | 17.3% | 11.0% |
| Market | 51.9% | 25.3% | 22.8% |
| Final | 56.9% | 23.3% | 19.8% |
| Edge | +19.8% | -7.9% | -11.8% |
Why Rodez
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rodez below the model: +19.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rodez and PAU expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Rodez and PAU attack and defence ratings
Rodez
PAU
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rodez vs PAU: result vs prediction
Rodez 2 – 2 PAU
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rodez vs PAU markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rodez | 56.9% | 1.76 | +19.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Rodez win | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rodez | 56.9% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| PAU | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% |
| No | 42.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rodez win | 51.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 28.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 3-0 | 8.4% |
Rodez vs PAU stats
Rodez and PAU recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rodez and PAU going into this match
Rodez record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
PAU record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rodez vs PAU head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | PAU | Rodez | Ligue 2 | 3-3 |
| 2025-09-26 | Rodez | PAU | Ligue 2 | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-14 | PAU | Rodez | Ligue 2 | 0-5 |
| 2024-12-06 | Rodez | PAU | Ligue 2 | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-03 | Rodez | PAU | Friendlies Clubs | 1-4 |
| 2024-01-13 | Rodez | PAU | Ligue 2 | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-02 | PAU | Rodez | Ligue 2 | 2-2 |
| 2023-07-22 | PAU | Rodez | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-26 | Rodez | PAU | Ligue 2 | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rodez vs PAU odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.9%, draw 25.3%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 3.80 | 4.08 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.82 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.77 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.70 | 4.31 |
| SBO | 1.80 | 3.21 | 3.57 |
| Superbet | 1.82 | 3.70 | 4.30 |
| Unibet | 1.82 | 3.65 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .