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Ligue 2 · Full time ·Matchday 5

Metz vs Rodez

4 – 1 Full time

8′Pape Moussa Fall
24′Jean Ruiz
35′Corentin Issanchou Roubiou
39′Jessy Deminguet
42′Pape Moussa Fall
45′Jean RuizUrie-Michel Mboula
45′Florian MiguelMaxime Colin
58′Pape Moussa Fall
62′Giorgi Abuashvili
66′Jessy DeminguetNampalys Mendy
68′Damjan PavlovićMathis Saka
68′Octave JolyAntonin Cartillier
74′Giorgi AbuashviliHamza Kadamani
74′Mathis TouhoNachon Nsingi
78′Teji SavanierAbdoulaye Agne Ba
78′Corentin Issanchou RoubiouRyan Ponti
78′Kenny NageraKelian Nsona

Stade Saint Symphorien, MetzReferee: Jeremy Stinat, France

Metz 39%
Draw 25%
Rodez 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 18
8 Shots on target 6
57 Possession % 43
7 Corners 7
11 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2
5 Saves 4
407 Accurate passes 271

Metz vs Rodez overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Metz vs Rodez

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMetzDrawRodez
Model18.1%22.7%59.2%
Market46.5%26.4%27.0%
Final39.4%25.5%35.1%
Edge-28.4%-3.7%+32.2%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Metz ↓ / Rodez → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 6% 5% 1 11% 10% 7% 6% 2 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Metz and Rodez expected goals

Metz 1.08
Rodez 2.07

Total expected goals: 3.14

Metz and Rodez attack and defence ratings

Metz

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Rodez

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Metz vs Rodez: result vs prediction

Metz 4 – 1 Rodez

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Ligue 2

Before and after this match

Metz vs Rodez markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Metz 39.4% 2.54 -28.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.8% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.5% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.5% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 81.9% 1.22 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Metz39.4%
Draw25.5%
Rodez35.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.8%
Under 2.539.2%
Both teams to scoreYes58.5%
No41.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.9%
12 (either side)74.5%
X2 (draw or away)60.6%
Handicap -1Metz win6.9%
Push (exactly one goal)11.2%
Loss81.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.6%
1-29.9%
0-29.2%

Metz vs Rodez stats

Metz and Rodez recent form

newest first
Metz DDDWDL
Rodez DWLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Metz and Rodez going into this match

league record before kick-off

Rodez record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.

Metz vs Rodez head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

2Metz wins 2Draws 0Rodez wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-05-02MetzRodezLigue 23-3
2024-08-23RodezMetzLigue 21-3
2023-01-31MetzRodezLigue 21-1
2022-08-30RodezMetzLigue 21-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Metz vs Rodez odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.3%, draw 26.7%, away 27.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.00 3.50 3.50
1xBet 2.02 3.54 3.46
Bet365 1.95 3.10 3.50
BetVictor 2.00 3.60 3.40
Betano 2.05 3.50 3.65
Betfair 2.00 3.60 3.30
Dafabet 2.12 3.40 3.50
Marathonbet 2.00 3.54 3.46
Pinnacle 2.10 3.56 3.54
SBO 1.97 3.21 3.02
Superbet 2.12 3.40 3.50
Unibet 2.02 3.50 3.45
William Hill 2.05 3.30 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.01 ▼ -0.09
X 3.54 ▲ +0.12
2 3.46 ▲ +0.19

9 snapshots recorded, from .