Aurora
vs
Marquense
1 – 0 Full time
| 32′ | C. Flores | ||
| 46′ | D. OchaetaL. Garcia | ||
| 46′ | A. J. Echeverria PerezR. Hernandez | ||
| 46′ | P. MottaH. Morales | ||
| 58′ | L. B. deA. Matta | ||
| 62′ | V. UriasJ. Gomez | ||
| 62′ | J. VivasE. Ibarguen | ||
| 70′ | D. GrandeE. Sanchez | ||
| 70′ | E. VelasquezJ. Cano | ||
| 75′ | H. Morales | ||
| 87′ | J. GrajedaL. Cardona |
Aurora vs Marquense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aurora vs Marquense
| Probability | Aurora | Draw | Marquense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.9% | 25.8% | 20.3% |
| Market | 44.2% | 29.9% | 25.9% |
| Final | 46.6% | 28.9% | 24.5% |
| Edge | +9.7% | -4.1% | -5.6% |
Why Aurora
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.00.
- The market prices Aurora below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aurora and Marquense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Aurora and Marquense attack and defence ratings
Aurora
Marquense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aurora vs Marquense: result vs prediction
Aurora 1 – 0 Marquense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aurora vs Marquense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 46.6% | 2.15 | +9.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 46.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Marquense | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% |
| No | 46.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 46.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
Aurora vs Marquense stats
Aurora and Marquense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aurora and Marquense going into this match
Aurora record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marquense record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Aurora vs Marquense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Aurora | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Marquense | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Marquense | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Aurora | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-06 | Aurora | Marquense | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2023-05-04 | Marquense | Aurora | Primera Division | 1-2 |
| 2021-11-14 | Marquense | Aurora | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2021-11-10 | Aurora | Marquense | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2019-11-10 | Aurora | Marquense | Primera Division | 1-1 |
| 2019-11-08 | Marquense | Aurora | Primera Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aurora vs Marquense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.7%, draw 29.1%, away 26.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.02 | 3.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.15 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.03 | 3.64 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 2.90 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .