Guastatoya
vs
Aurora
2 – 1 Full time
| 6′ | A. Lon | ||
| 13′ | V. Avalos | ||
| 16′ | J. Grajeda | ||
| 45′ | H. Morales | ||
| 46′ | L. AguilarR. Hernandez | ||
| 46′ | J. GrajedaJ. Rodriguez | ||
| 51′ | A. LonJ. Estrada | ||
| 62′ | C. AlvaradoB. Morales | ||
| 62′ | A. ContrerasW. Pineda | ||
| 62′ | M. SequenC. Ramirez | ||
| 69′ | V. AvalosA. Tejeda | ||
| 69′ | H. MoralesH. Del Cid | ||
| 69′ | V. UriasD. Ruiz | ||
| 76′ | N. Lovato | ||
| 78′ | R. Hernandez | ||
| 79′ | C. Ramirez | ||
| 84′ | J. Vivas | ||
| 88′ | K. GarciaJ. Ticuru |
Guastatoya vs Aurora overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guastatoya vs Aurora
| Probability | Guastatoya | Draw | Aurora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.2% | 17.4% | 9.4% |
| Market | 61.7% | 24.2% | 14.1% |
| Final | 64.6% | 22.5% | 13.0% |
| Edge | +11.5% | -6.8% | -4.7% |
Why Guastatoya
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Guastatoya below the model: +11.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guastatoya and Aurora expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.31
Guastatoya and Aurora attack and defence ratings
Guastatoya
Aurora
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Guastatoya vs Aurora: result vs prediction
Guastatoya 2 – 1 Aurora
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guastatoya vs Aurora markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 64.6% | 1.55 | +11.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 64.6% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Aurora | 13.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win | 51.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 26.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 3-0 | 9.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Guastatoya vs Aurora stats
Guastatoya and Aurora recent form
| Guastatoya |
WWWDWL |
| Aurora |
LWLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Guastatoya and Aurora going into this match
Guastatoya record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aurora record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guastatoya vs Aurora head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Aurora | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Aurora | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Guastatoya | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-28 | Guastatoya | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-2 |
| 2025-07-20 | Aurora | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Guastatoya vs Aurora odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.7%, draw 24.2%, away 14.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 4.28 | 6.85 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.70 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 3.90 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 3.73 | 6.74 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .