Malacateco
vs
Guastatoya
Garuda Lions Prediction: Malacateco
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Malacateco vs Guastatoya overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Malacateco vs Guastatoya
| Probability | Malacateco | Draw | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 30.9% | 32.1% |
| Market | 48.6% | 28.7% | 22.7% |
| Final | 45.7% | 29.3% | 25.1% |
| Edge | -11.6% | +2.2% | +9.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Malacateco vs Guastatoya match preview
Malacateco faces Guastatoya in a matchup where the model assigns a 38% probability of a home win for Malacateco, while Guastatoya has a 30% chance of victory, and a draw stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Malacateco, with a probability of 11%. The expected goals for Malacateco are 1.21, slightly higher than Guastatoya's 1.05.
In terms of recent form, Malacateco has recorded two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Guastatoya has a stronger record with four wins, a draw, and one loss. The head-to-head results from the last five encounters show a balanced competition, with both teams winning two matches each and one draw. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating moderate certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Malacateco and Guastatoya expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
Malacateco and Guastatoya attack and defence ratings
Malacateco
Guastatoya
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Malacateco vs Guastatoya markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malacateco | 45.7% | 2.19 | -11.6% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malacateco | 45.7% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Guastatoya | 25.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Malacateco win | 16.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.2% | |
| 1-0 | 10.6% |
Malacateco vs Guastatoya stats
Malacateco and Guastatoya recent form
| Malacateco |
LLWDLW |
| Guastatoya |
WWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Malacateco and Guastatoya season so far
Malacateco record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guastatoya record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malacateco vs Guastatoya head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Guastatoya | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Malacateco | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Guastatoya | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Malacateco | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Guastatoya | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Malacateco vs Guastatoya odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.6%, draw 28.7%, away 22.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.10 | 4.06 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.25 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.10 | 3.94 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.12 | 4.11 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 2.90 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .