Municipal
vs
Marquense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Municipal
2 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Municipal vs Marquense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Municipal vs Marquense
| Probability | Municipal | Draw | Marquense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.6% | 18.5% | 5.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 75.6% | 18.5% | 5.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Municipal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.45.
Municipal vs Marquense match preview
Municipal enters this matchup against Marquense with a strong probability of winning at 78%. Their recent form shows consistency, with three wins in their last five matches, contributing to their overall dominance in head-to-head encounters, where they have secured five consecutive victories against Marquense. The expected goals for Municipal stand at 2.22, indicating a solid attacking performance.
In contrast, Marquense has a lower probability of success at just 5%, despite a mixed recent form of three wins and two losses in their last five games. The expected goals for Marquense are significantly lower at 0.41, reflecting their struggles in front of goal. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0 in favor of Municipal, with a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Municipal and Marquense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Municipal and Marquense attack and defence ratings
Municipal
Marquense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Municipal vs Marquense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.1% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 75.6% |
| Draw | 18.5% | |
| Marquense | 5.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.4% |
| No | 67.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win | 50.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 24.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 17.3% |
| 1-0 | 15.7% | |
| 3-0 | 12.1% |
Municipal vs Marquense stats
Municipal and Marquense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Municipal and Marquense season so far
Municipal record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Marquense record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Municipal vs Marquense head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Marquense | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Marquense | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Municipal | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Marquense | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Municipal | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.