Aurora
vs
Xelajú
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aurora
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Aurora vs Xelajú overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aurora vs Xelajú
| Probability | Aurora | Draw | Xelajú |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.6% | 24.6% | 36.8% |
| Market | 38.7% | 29.0% | 32.3% |
| Final | 38.6% | 27.9% | 33.5% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -4.4% | +4.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Aurora vs Xelajú match preview
In the upcoming match between Aurora and Xelajú, Aurora holds a 39% probability of winning, while Xelajú is slightly behind at 36%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 25%. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Aurora, with a 8% chance of occurring. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with a 67% probability that both will find the net and a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Recent form indicates that Aurora has struggled, with a record of L-W-L-L-L-W in their last six matches. Conversely, Xelajú has shown more consistency with a W-L-W-D-L-D record. In their last five encounters, Aurora has secured 1 win, while Xelajú has won 2, with 2 matches ending in a draw. The expected goals are closely matched, with Aurora at 1.72 and Xelajú at 1.64.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aurora and Xelajú expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Aurora and Xelajú attack and defence ratings
Aurora
Xelajú
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aurora vs Xelajú markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 38.6% | 2.59 | -0.1% | 2.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 38.6% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Xelajú | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% |
| No | 32.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 61.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Aurora vs Xelajú stats
Aurora and Xelajú recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aurora and Xelajú season so far
Aurora record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Xelajú record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Aurora vs Xelajú head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Xelajú | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Aurora | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Xelajú | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Aurora | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-2 |
| 2025-09-14 | Xelajú | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aurora vs Xelajú odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 29.0%, away 32.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.12 | 2.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.10 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.15 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.12 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.35 | 3.21 | 2.83 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .