Xelajú
vs
Malacateco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Xelajú
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Xelajú vs Malacateco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Xelajú vs Malacateco
| Probability | Xelajú | Draw | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.8% | 15.4% | 6.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 77.8% | 15.4% | 6.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Xelajú
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.68.
Xelajú vs Malacateco match preview
Xelajú enters the match against Malacateco with a strong probability of winning at 78%, while Malacateco has a mere 7% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a 13% probability. Xelajú's expected goals stand at 2.60, significantly higher than Malacateco's 0.68. Recent form shows Xelajú with mixed results, recording a win, loss, win, draw, and another draw in their last five matches, while Malacateco has two losses, a win, a draw, and a win in the same span.
Historically, Xelajú has performed well against Malacateco, winning three of their last five encounters, with one draw and one win for Malacateco. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 64%, while both teams scoring is estimated at 46%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Xelajú and Malacateco expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.28
Xelajú and Malacateco attack and defence ratings
Xelajú
Malacateco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Xelajú vs Malacateco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.2% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 77.8% |
| Draw | 15.4% | |
| Malacateco | 6.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win | 57.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 22.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.7% |
| 3-0 | 11.0% | |
| 1-0 | 9.1% |
Xelajú vs Malacateco stats
Xelajú and Malacateco recent form
| Xelajú |
WLWDLD |
| Malacateco |
LLWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Xelajú and Malacateco season so far
Xelajú record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Malacateco record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Xelajú vs Malacateco head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Malacateco | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2026-04-06 | Xelajú | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Malacateco | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Xelajú | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2025-07-20 | Malacateco | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.