Garuda Lions
Today
Úrvalsdeild · Full time ·Matchday 22

KA Akureyri vs Breidablik

2 – 1 Full time

10′H. Gudmundsson
12′A. Orrason
21′A. Orrason
36′S. Kristinsson
46′K. Kristinsson
55′J. Pedersen
62′H. KarlssonH. Gunnlaugsson
62′A. LudvikssonV. Einarsson
62′K. KristinssonD. Fjeldsted
64′M. Thordarson
69′A. PalssonD. Montiel
69′D. DjuricJ. Robertsson
78′S. KristinssonA. Sigurgeirsson
84′J. ArnarssonA. Bjarnason
84′T. UlfarssonA. Gunnleifsson
90′J. PedersenB. Helgason

Referee: T. Ahmed

KA Akureyri 39%
Draw 23%
Breidablik 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

KA Akureyri vs Breidablik overview

Garuda Lions analysis: KA Akureyri vs Breidablik

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKA AkureyriDrawBreidablik
Model43.8%20.5%35.6%
Market37.2%23.8%39.0%
Final38.9%23.0%38.2%
Edge+6.7%-3.3%-3.4%

Confidence: Low

Why KA Akureyri

  • The market prices KA Akureyri below the model: +6.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

KA Akureyri ↓ / Breidablik → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 6% 4% 4% 2 7% 7% 5% 4% 3 5% 6% 4% 4+ 5% 6% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 82%
No goals 2%

KA Akureyri and Breidablik expected goals

KA Akureyri 2.35
Breidablik 2.12

Total expected goals: 4.47

KA Akureyri and Breidablik attack and defence ratings

KA Akureyri

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.37 +37%

Breidablik

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

KA Akureyri vs Breidablik: result vs prediction

KA Akureyri 2 – 1 Breidablik

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 22 fixtures

Úrvalsdeild

Before and after this match

KA Akureyri vs Breidablik markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 KA Akureyri 38.9% 2.57 +6.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82.3% 1.21 — —
Both teams to score Yes 80.2% 1.25 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.0% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.2% 1.78 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2KA Akureyri38.9%
Draw23.0%
Breidablik38.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582.3%
Under 2.517.7%
Both teams to scoreYes80.2%
No19.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.8%
12 (either side)77.0%
X2 (draw or away)61.1%
Handicap -1KA Akureyri win26.5%
Push (exactly one goal)17.4%
Loss56.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-27.1%
2-16.7%
1-16.3%

KA Akureyri vs Breidablik stats

KA Akureyri and Breidablik recent form

newest first
KA Akureyri DLDLLD
Breidablik LLDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

KA Akureyri and Breidablik going into this match

league record before kick-off

KA Akureyri record

  • They have won 4 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Breidablik record

  • They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

KA Akureyri vs Breidablik head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0KA Akureyri wins 3Draws 7Breidablik wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-21BreidablikKA AkureyriÚrvalsdeild3-1
2025-08-03BreidablikKA AkureyriÚrvalsdeild1-1
2025-05-11KA AkureyriBreidablikÚrvalsdeild0-1
2025-03-30BreidablikKA AkureyriSuper Cup3-1
2025-02-15KA AkureyriBreidablikLeague Cup0-5
2024-09-01KA AkureyriBreidablikÚrvalsdeild2-3
2024-06-19BreidablikKA AkureyriÚrvalsdeild2-1
2023-08-13KA AkureyriBreidablikÚrvalsdeild1-1
2023-07-04KA AkureyriBreidablikCup3-3
2023-05-21BreidablikKA AkureyriÚrvalsdeild2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

KA Akureyri vs Breidablik odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.2%, draw 23.2%, away 40.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.46 3.94 2.39
Bet365 2.55 3.75 2.20
BetVictor 2.20 3.50 2.20
Betano 2.62 3.90 2.25
Betfair 2.55 4.00 2.20
Dafabet 2.65 3.95 2.23
Marathonbet 2.46 3.94 2.39
Pinnacle 2.47 4.14 2.48
Unibet 2.65 3.75 2.10
William Hill 2.40 3.70 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.46 ▼ -0.31
X 3.84 ▼ -0.25
2 2.34 ▲ +0.23

11 snapshots recorded, from .