Keflavik
vs
Valur Reykjavik
1 – 2 Full time
| 20′ | J. PalssonI. Stole | ||
| 29′ | S. Fridjonsson | ||
| 36′ | J. Jonsson | ||
| 52′ | D. Gardarson | ||
| 64′ | A. ContehM. Mudrazija | ||
| 64′ | P. PedersenM. Veldman | ||
| 69′ | M. Mudrazija | ||
| 79′ | D. ValssonM. Simicic | ||
| 89′ | D. GardarsonO. Omarsson |
Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik
| Probability | Keflavik | Draw | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.3% | 22.0% | 19.7% |
| Market | 43.7% | 24.2% | 32.1% |
| Final | 47.4% | 23.6% | 29.0% |
| Edge | +14.6% | -2.1% | -12.4% |
Why Keflavik
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Keflavik below the model: +14.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Keflavik and Valur Reykjavik expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
Keflavik and Valur Reykjavik attack and defence ratings
Keflavik
Valur Reykjavik
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik: result vs prediction
Keflavik 1 – 2 Valur Reykjavik
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 22 fixtures
Before and after this match
Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keflavik | 47.4% | 2.11 | +14.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keflavik | 47.4% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Valur Reykjavik | 29.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Keflavik win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 41.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.0% |
Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik stats
Keflavik and Valur Reykjavik recent form
| Keflavik |
LWWLWL |
| Valur Reykjavik |
DLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Keflavik and Valur Reykjavik going into this match
Keflavik record
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
Valur Reykjavik record
- They have won 7 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Valur Reykjavik | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 1-1 |
| 2024-06-09 | Keflavik | Valur Reykjavik | Cup | 3-3 |
| 2023-08-13 | Keflavik | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-21 | Valur Reykjavik | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-0 |
| 2022-07-11 | Valur Reykjavik | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-3 |
| 2022-04-24 | Keflavik | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-1 |
| 2021-08-15 | Valur Reykjavik | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 2-1 |
| 2021-05-24 | Keflavik | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 1-2 |
| 2020-05-27 | Valur Reykjavik | Keflavik | Friendlies Clubs | 5-1 |
| 2018-09-29 | Valur Reykjavik | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.8%, draw 23.6%, away 32.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.10 | 3.95 | 2.70 |
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.90 | 2.93 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.95 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 4.00 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.12 | 4.00 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.08 | 3.90 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 4.13 | 3.00 |
| Unibet | 1.94 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .