Progres Niederkorn
vs
Swift Hesperange
Garuda Lions Prediction: Progres Niederkorn
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 0.50.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange
| Probability | Progres Niederkorn | Draw | Swift Hesperange |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83.6% | 12.4% | 4.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 83.6% | 12.4% | 4.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Progres Niederkorn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange match preview
Progres Niederkorn enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 84%, while Swift Hesperange has a mere 4% chance according to our model. The expected goals for Progres Niederkorn stand at 2.75, significantly higher than Swift Hesperange's 0.50. Recent form also favors the hosts, as they have recorded two wins in their last five matches, while Swift Hesperange has lost all six of their most recent fixtures.
The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a 15% probability. Additionally, there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, while both teams scoring is less likely at 37%. In their last two encounters, Progres Niederkorn has secured one win and one draw against Swift Hesperange, who have yet to win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Progres Niederkorn and Swift Hesperange expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Progres Niederkorn and Swift Hesperange attack and defence ratings
Progres Niederkorn
Swift Hesperange
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- F91 Dudelange vs Victoria Rosport — team news & stats
- AS Jeunesse Esch vs FC Differdange 03 — team news & stats
- US Rumelange v Racing FC Union Luxembourg — match page
- UNA Strassen vs UN Kaerjeng 97
- US Mondorf-les-bains v US Hostert — match page
- Atert Bissen vs Etzella Ettelbruck — team news & stats
- Résidence Walferdange vs Wiltz
Before and after this match
Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progres Niederkorn | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 96.0% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Progres Niederkorn win | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progres Niederkorn | 83.6% |
| Draw | 12.4% | |
| Swift Hesperange | 4.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.4% |
| No | 62.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 96.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 16.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Progres Niederkorn win | 64.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 16.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.6% |
| 3-0 | 13.4% | |
| 1-0 | 10.1% |
Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange stats
Progres Niederkorn and Swift Hesperange recent form
| Progres Niederkorn |
LLWDWW |
| Swift Hesperange |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Progres Niederkorn and Swift Hesperange season so far
Progres Niederkorn record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Swift Hesperange record
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 10 matches.
Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Progres Niederkorn | Swift Hesperange | National Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Swift Hesperange | Progres Niederkorn | National Division | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.