Etzella Ettelbruck
vs
Progres Niederkorn
Garuda Lions Prediction: Progres Niederkorn
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn
| Probability | Etzella Ettelbruck | Draw | Progres Niederkorn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.9% | 25.0% | 60.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 14.9% | 25.0% | 60.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Progres Niederkorn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn match preview
Etzella Ettelbruck faces Progres Niederkorn in an upcoming National Division match, with the model assigning a 15% probability of victory for Ettelbruck, while Niederkorn stands at 60%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 13%. Expected goals for Ettelbruck are 0.78, compared to 1.78 for Niederkorn, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
Recent form shows Ettelbruck with a record of L-D-L-W-L-L, while Niederkorn has performed slightly better with W-D-W-W-L-L. The model suggests a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% probability that both teams will score. The overall confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Etzella Ettelbruck and Progres Niederkorn expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Etzella Ettelbruck and Progres Niederkorn attack and defence ratings
Etzella Ettelbruck
Progres Niederkorn
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progres Niederkorn | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.1% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 14.9% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Progres Niederkorn | 60.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Progres Niederkorn win | 35.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 39.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 12.7% |
| 0-2 | 12.3% | |
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn stats
Etzella Ettelbruck and Progres Niederkorn recent form
| Etzella Ettelbruck |
LDLWLL |
| Progres Niederkorn |
WDWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Etzella Ettelbruck and Progres Niederkorn season so far
Etzella Ettelbruck record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Progres Niederkorn record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.