US Hostert
vs
Progres Niederkorn
Garuda Lions Prediction: Progres Niederkorn
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn overview
Garuda Lions analysis: US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn
| Probability | US Hostert | Draw | Progres Niederkorn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.3% | 28.9% | 37.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.3% | 28.9% | 37.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn match preview
US Hostert faces Progres Niederkorn in the National Division, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a close contest, assigning probabilities of 33% for a US Hostert victory, 29% for a draw, and 38% for a Progres Niederkorn win. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Expected goals suggest a slight edge for Progres Niederkorn at 1.34 compared to US Hostert's 1.25.
In terms of recent form, US Hostert has recorded two draws and three wins in their last six matches, while Progres Niederkorn has two wins, two losses, and two draws in the same timeframe. Historically, Progres Niederkorn has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two head-to-head matches against US Hostert. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting the model's uncertainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
US Hostert and Progres Niederkorn expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
US Hostert and Progres Niederkorn attack and defence ratings
US Hostert
Progres Niederkorn
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progres Niederkorn | 37.8% | 2.64 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Hostert | 33.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Progres Niederkorn | 37.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Progres Niederkorn win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 62.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 8.8% | |
| 0-0 | 8.8% |
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn stats
US Hostert and Progres Niederkorn recent form
| US Hostert |
DDWLWW |
| Progres Niederkorn |
DWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
US Hostert and Progres Niederkorn season so far
US Hostert record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Progres Niederkorn record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | US Hostert | Progres Niederkorn | National Division | 1-5 |
| 2025-10-01 | Progres Niederkorn | US Hostert | National Division | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.