US Rumelange
vs
US Mondorf-les-bains
Garuda Lions Prediction: US Mondorf-les-bains
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
US Rumelange vs US Mondorf-les-bains overview
Garuda Lions analysis: US Rumelange vs US Mondorf-les-bains
| Probability | US Rumelange | Draw | US Mondorf-les-bains |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.3% | 18.2% | 69.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 12.3% | 18.2% | 69.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why US Mondorf-les-bains
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
US Rumelange vs US Mondorf-les-bains match preview
US Rumelange faces US Mondorf-les-bains in the National Division with a significant disparity in their recent form. US Rumelange has struggled, recording five consecutive losses followed by a single win, while US Mondorf-les-bains has bounced back with three wins in their last four matches after two losses. The model indicates a 12% chance for a US Rumelange victory, an 18% probability of a draw, and a strong 70% likelihood for a US Mondorf-les-bains win.
The expected goals suggest a challenging match for US Rumelange, with an expected goal tally of 1.00 compared to US Mondorf-les-bains' 2.52. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 68%, and there is a 59% chance that both teams will score. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-2 in favor of US Mondorf-les-bains.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
US Rumelange and US Mondorf-les-bains expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.52
US Rumelange and US Mondorf-les-bains attack and defence ratings
US Rumelange
US Mondorf-les-bains
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Etzella Ettelbruck v F91 Dudelange — match page
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Before and after this match
US Rumelange vs US Mondorf-les-bains markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | US Mondorf-les-bains win | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Rumelange | 12.3% |
| Draw | 18.2% | |
| US Mondorf-les-bains | 69.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.9% |
| No | 41.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 30.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | US Mondorf-les-bains win | 48.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 30.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.4% |
| 0-2 | 9.4% | |
| 1-1 | 8.2% |
US Rumelange vs US Mondorf-les-bains stats
US Rumelange and US Mondorf-les-bains recent form
| US Rumelange |
LLLLLW |
| US Mondorf-les-bains |
LLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
US Rumelange and US Mondorf-les-bains season so far
US Rumelange record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
US Mondorf-les-bains record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.