US Mondorf-les-bains
vs
Wiltz
Garuda Lions Prediction: US Mondorf-les-bains
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz
| Probability | US Mondorf-les-bains | Draw | Wiltz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.9% | 18.9% | 14.2% |
| Market | 74.3% | 16.2% | 9.5% |
| Final | 72.4% | 16.9% | 10.7% |
| Edge | -7.4% | +2.7% | +4.6% |
Why US Mondorf-les-bains
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz match preview
US Mondorf-les-bains enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 67%, while Wiltz has a lower chance at 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability. US Mondorf-les-bains shows a solid expected goals figure of 2.48, compared to Wiltz's 1.10.
In terms of recent form, US Mondorf-les-bains has recorded three wins in their last six matches, while Wiltz is struggling with six consecutive losses. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in this match stands at 69%, and both teams scoring is projected at 62%. With a confidence grade of C, this matchup presents an intriguing dynamic between the two teams.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
US Mondorf-les-bains and Wiltz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
US Mondorf-les-bains and Wiltz attack and defence ratings
US Mondorf-les-bains
Wiltz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Atert Bissen v US Hostert — match page
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Before and after this match
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 72.4% | 1.38 | -7.4% | 1.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.3% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | US Mondorf-les-bains win | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 72.4% |
| Draw | 16.9% | |
| Wiltz | 10.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | US Mondorf-les-bains win | 45.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 33.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | |
| 1-1 | 8.4% |
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz stats
US Mondorf-les-bains and Wiltz recent form
| US Mondorf-les-bains |
WLLWWW |
| Wiltz |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
US Mondorf-les-bains and Wiltz season so far
US Mondorf-les-bains record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Wiltz record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-09 | Wiltz | US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-15 | US Mondorf-les-bains | Wiltz | National Division | 3-2 |
| 2024-05-12 | Wiltz | US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-03 | US Mondorf-les-bains | Wiltz | National Division | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-30 | US Mondorf-les-bains | Wiltz | National Division | 3-0 |
| 2022-11-27 | Wiltz | US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division | 4-4 |
| 2022-03-06 | US Mondorf-les-bains | Wiltz | National Division | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-18 | Wiltz | US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division | 1-2 |
| 2021-05-16 | US Mondorf-les-bains | Wiltz | National Division | 0-3 |
| 2021-02-28 | Wiltz | US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 74.3%, draw 16.2%, away 9.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 5.60 | 10.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 5.25 | 9.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.19 | 5.60 | 9.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24 | 5.80 | 8.65 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .