Moghreb Tetouan
vs
CODM Meknès
Garuda Lions Prediction: CODM Meknès
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.80.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès
| Probability | Moghreb Tetouan | Draw | CODM Meknès |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.8% | 26.7% | 56.5% |
| Market | 25.0% | 31.2% | 43.8% |
| Final | 23.0% | 30.1% | 47.0% |
| Edge | -2.1% | -1.1% | +3.2% |
Why CODM Meknès
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices CODM Meknès below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.5% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 2.14 − 1).
Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès match preview
Moghreb Tetouan faces CODM Meknès in the Botola Pro with the kickoff scheduled for November 7, 2026. According to our model, Moghreb Tetouan has a 17% chance of winning, while CODM Meknès is favored with a 56% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 13% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Moghreb Tetouan will score 0.80, while CODM Meknès is projected to net 1.65.
Recent form shows Moghreb Tetouan struggling with three consecutive losses and three draws, whereas CODM Meknès has a more favorable record with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. The head-to-head record indicates that Moghreb Tetouan has not secured a win against CODM Meknès in their last two encounters, with one draw and one win for Meknès.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Moghreb Tetouan and CODM Meknès expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Moghreb Tetouan and CODM Meknès attack and defence ratings
Moghreb Tetouan
CODM Meknès
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CODM Meknès | 47.0% | 2.13 | +3.2% | 2.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moghreb Tetouan | 23.0% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| CODM Meknès | 47.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | CODM Meknès win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 43.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | |
| 0-2 | 11.8% |
Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès stats
Moghreb Tetouan and CODM Meknès recent form
| Moghreb Tetouan |
LLLDDD |
| CODM Meknès |
DWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Moghreb Tetouan and CODM Meknès season so far
Moghreb Tetouan record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
CODM Meknès record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-17 | CODM Meknès | Moghreb Tetouan | Botola Pro | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-29 | Moghreb Tetouan | CODM Meknès | Botola Pro | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.0%, draw 31.2%, away 43.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.68 | 2.86 | 2.06 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 2.95 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 2.90 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.00 | 2.08 |
| Marathonbet | 3.58 | 2.86 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.62 | 2.92 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 2.70 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .