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KNVB Beker · Full time ·2nd Preliminary Round

Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn

0 – 1 Full time

3′Purmersteijn
Zwaluwen 42%
Draw 23%
Purmersteijn 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityZwaluwenDrawPurmersteijn
Model55.5%18.5%26.0%
Market37.8%24.2%38.1%
Final42.2%22.8%35.1%
Edge+17.7%-5.7%-12.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Zwaluwen

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 1.97.
  • The market prices Zwaluwen below the model: +17.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Zwaluwen ↓ / Purmersteijn → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 5% 2 7% 6% 3 6% 6% 4+ 4% 9% 8% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 96%
3+ goals 86%
No goals 1%

Zwaluwen and Purmersteijn expected goals

Zwaluwen 2.81
Purmersteijn 1.97

Total expected goals: 4.78

Zwaluwen and Purmersteijn attack and defence ratings

Zwaluwen

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Purmersteijn

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn: result vs prediction

Zwaluwen 0 – 1 Purmersteijn

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures

KNVB Beker

Before and after this match

Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Zwaluwen 42.2% 2.37 +17.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 85.6% 1.17 — —
Both teams to score Yes 81.3% 1.23 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.2% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.5% 2.25 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Zwaluwen42.2%
Draw22.8%
Purmersteijn35.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.585.6%
Under 2.514.4%
Both teams to scoreYes81.3%
No18.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.9%
12 (either side)77.2%
X2 (draw or away)57.8%
Handicap -1Zwaluwen win37.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.2%
Loss44.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-16.5%
2-26.4%
3-16.1%

Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn stats

Zwaluwen and Purmersteijn recent form

newest first
Zwaluwen WL
Purmersteijn W

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.8%, draw 24.2%, away 38.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.35 3.74 2.35
Bet365 2.40 4.20 2.50
BetVictor 2.40 3.70 2.45
Betano 2.35 3.75 2.37
Betfair 2.40 3.80 2.38
Pinnacle 2.34 3.80 2.31
William Hill 2.40 3.60 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.40 ▲ +0.07
X 3.75 ▼ -0.01
2 2.38 ▼ -0.07

2 snapshots recorded, from .