Garuda Lions
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KNVB Beker · Full time ·Round of 64

Purmersteijn vs Gemert

2 – 0 Full time

15′T. Janssen
58′T. JanssenE. Craenen
59′H. OomensM. Polman
59′D. PlasmeijerD. van Os
59′N. KwakmanJ. Lobbes
71′M. EliasarD. Janssen
80′D. van DiepenM. Janssen
80′G. VercoelenF. Deben
86′O. Nait AichaL. Tol
91′J. PeetersS. Jenniskens
94′L. Tol
100′M. VerkuijlP. van Hout
105′S. den DunnenR. Castelo da Silva
108′M. Bolhuis
108′M. Polman
110′J. van LieshoutM. Kuijpers
113′M. Bolhuis
113′M. Bolhuis
118′B. Achten

Sportpark Purmersteijn, PurmerendReferee: M. Achammachi

Purmersteijn 38%
Draw 25%
Gemert 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Purmersteijn vs Gemert overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Purmersteijn vs Gemert

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPurmersteijnDrawGemert
Model25.8%25.9%48.3%
Market41.9%25.2%32.9%
Final37.9%25.4%36.8%
Edge-4.0%+0.2%+3.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Purmersteijn ↓ / Gemert → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 8% 1 12% 10% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Purmersteijn and Gemert expected goals

Purmersteijn 1.21
Gemert 1.72

Total expected goals: 2.93

Purmersteijn and Gemert attack and defence ratings

Purmersteijn

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Gemert

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.59 -41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Purmersteijn vs Gemert: result vs prediction

Purmersteijn 2 – 0 Gemert

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

KNVB Beker

Before and after this match

Purmersteijn vs Gemert markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Purmersteijn 37.9% 2.64 -4.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.2% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.8% 1.70 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.6% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 74.3% 1.35 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Purmersteijn37.9%
Draw25.4%
Gemert36.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.2%
Under 2.543.8%
Both teams to scoreYes58.8%
No41.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.2%
12 (either side)74.6%
X2 (draw or away)62.1%
Handicap -1Purmersteijn win10.9%
Push (exactly one goal)14.8%
Loss74.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
1-29.6%
0-18.0%

Purmersteijn vs Gemert stats

Purmersteijn and Gemert recent form

newest first
Purmersteijn WW
Gemert WWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Purmersteijn vs Gemert head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Purmersteijn vs Gemert odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.9%, draw 25.2%, away 32.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.20 3.70 2.82
Bet365 2.10 4.00 2.90
BetVictor 2.20 3.60 2.75
Betano 2.10 3.65 2.80
Betfair 2.15 3.60 2.70
Dafabet 2.16 4.00 2.95
Pinnacle 2.24 3.43 2.46
William Hill 2.30 3.40 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.18 ▲ +0.20
X 3.62 ▼ -0.13
2 2.77 ▼ -0.33

3 snapshots recorded, from .