Dungannon Swifts
vs
Carrick Rangers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dungannon Swifts
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers
| Probability | Dungannon Swifts | Draw | Carrick Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.7% | 26.7% | 44.6% |
| Market | 40.5% | 26.4% | 33.1% |
| Final | 37.5% | 26.5% | 36.0% |
| Edge | -11.8% | +0.3% | +11.5% |
Why Dungannon Swifts
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers match preview
Dungannon Swifts face Carrick Rangers in an intriguing Northern Ireland Premiership clash. The model assigns a 37% probability to both teams winning, with a 26% chance of a draw. The expected goals indicate a competitive match, with Dungannon Swifts projected at 1.27 and Carrick Rangers at 1.62. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Dungannon Swifts, occurring at a 7% probability.
Both teams show mixed recent form, with Dungannon Swifts recording two wins in their last six matches, while Carrick Rangers have struggled, winning only once in their last six. Historical head-to-head results favor Carrick Rangers slightly, with two wins compared to Dungannon Swifts' one in their last four encounters. The probabilities suggest a balanced matchup, with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring likely at 55% and 59%, respectively.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers attack and defence ratings
Dungannon Swifts
Carrick Rangers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dungannon Swifts | 37.5% | 2.66 | -11.8% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dungannon Swifts | 37.5% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Carrick Rangers | 36.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dungannon Swifts win | 12.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 71.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 7.9% |
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers stats
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers recent form
| Dungannon Swifts |
LDLLWW |
| Carrick Rangers |
WLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers season so far
Dungannon Swifts record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Carrick Rangers record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | Northern Ireland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Carrick Rangers | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 5-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Carrick Rangers | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 3-3 |
| 2025-08-23 | Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Carrick Rangers | Dungannon Swifts | Irish Cup | 1-3 |
| 2025-02-15 | Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Carrick Rangers | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2024-04-06 | Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | Premiership | 3-2 |
| 2024-02-17 | Carrick Rangers | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.5%, draw 26.4%, away 33.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.44 | 2.74 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.13 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.27 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.44 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.60 | 2.81 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .