Northern Ireland Premiership
·
Full time
·Matchday 11
Dungannon Swifts
vs
Carrick Rangers
2 – 4 Full time
| 9′ | P. Heatley | ||
| 12′ | K. Dillon | ||
| 20′ | J. Crowe | ||
| 27′ | J. Callacher | ||
| 34′ | G. Bigirimana | ||
| 45′ | D. Wallace | ||
| 46′ | G. BigirimanaT. Kelly | ||
| 46′ | S. GordonC. McGinty | ||
| 49′ | M. Snoddy | ||
| 59′ | J. Crowe | ||
| 61′ | B. McKeownP. Doyle | ||
| 62′ | D. Gibson | ||
| 68′ | J. GlackinA. Mitchell | ||
| 68′ | J. Ogedi-UzokweC. Smith | ||
| 73′ | J. CroweS. Clucas | ||
| 73′ | J. ForsytheD. O'Conchubhair | ||
| 79′ | N. Gartside | ||
| 79′ | S. McAllister | ||
| 80′ | A. LeckyN. Maciulaitis |
Dungannon Swifts
38%
Draw
26%
Carrick Rangers
36%
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers
| Probability | Dungannon Swifts | Draw | Carrick Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.7% | 26.7% | 44.6% |
| Market | 40.8% | 26.2% | 33.0% |
| Final | 37.7% | 26.3% | 35.9% |
| Edge | -3.0% | +0.1% | +2.9% |
Why Dungannon Swifts
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
55%
No goals
7%
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers expected goals
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Carrick Rangers
1.63
Total expected goals: 2.89
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers attack and defence ratings
Dungannon Swifts
Attack
0.73 -27%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Carrick Rangers
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers: result vs prediction
Dungannon Swifts 2 – 4 Carrick Rangers
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dungannon Swifts | 37.7% | 2.65 | -3.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dungannon Swifts | 37.7% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Carrick Rangers | 35.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dungannon Swifts win | 12.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 71.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 7.9% |
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers stats
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers recent form
| Dungannon Swifts |
LDLLWW |
| Carrick Rangers |
WLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers going into this match
Dungannon Swifts record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Carrick Rangers record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Dungannon Swifts wins
1Draws
3Carrick Rangers wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | Northern Ireland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Carrick Rangers | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 5-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Carrick Rangers | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 3-3 |
| 2025-08-23 | Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Carrick Rangers | Dungannon Swifts | Irish Cup | 1-3 |
| 2025-02-15 | Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Carrick Rangers | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2024-04-06 | Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | Premiership | 3-2 |
| 2024-02-17 | Carrick Rangers | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.8%, draw 26.2%, away 33.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.44 | 2.74 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.13 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.27 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.44 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.35 | 3.65 | 2.86 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.22 ▼ -0.07
X
3.45 ▼ -0.15
2
2.74 ▲ +0.02
13 snapshots recorded, from .