Crusaders FC
vs
Larne
Garuda Lions Prediction: Larne
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Crusaders FC vs Larne overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crusaders FC vs Larne
| Probability | Crusaders FC | Draw | Larne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.2% | 24.6% | 49.2% |
| Market | 13.0% | 18.2% | 68.8% |
| Final | 16.3% | 19.8% | 63.9% |
| Edge | +13.2% | +6.4% | -19.6% |
Why Larne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Crusaders FC vs Larne match preview
Crusaders FC faces Larne in the Northern Ireland Premiership, with model probabilities indicating a 26% chance for a home win, a 25% chance for a draw, and a 49% chance for an away victory. The expected goals for Crusaders FC stand at 1.33, while Larne is projected at 1.87, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Crusaders FC has struggled, recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Larne has shown strong performance, winning four of their last six games, with one loss. The head-to-head record favors Larne, who has won all three of their previous encounters against Crusaders FC. Additionally, there is a 62% likelihood of more than 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Crusaders FC and Larne expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
Crusaders FC and Larne attack and defence ratings
Crusaders FC
Larne
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crusaders FC vs Larne markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 63.9% | 1.56 | -19.6% | 1.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crusaders FC | 16.3% |
| Draw | 19.8% | |
| Larne | 63.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.2% |
Crusaders FC vs Larne stats
Crusaders FC and Larne recent form
| Crusaders FC |
LWLWLL |
| Larne |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crusaders FC and Larne season so far
Crusaders FC record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Larne record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Crusaders FC vs Larne head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Crusaders FC | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-4 |
| 2025-12-20 | Crusaders FC | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Larne | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Crusaders FC | Larne | Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-08 | Larne | Crusaders FC | Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-07 | Crusaders FC | Larne | Premiership | 1-3 |
| 2024-10-19 | Larne | Crusaders FC | Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-06 | Larne | Crusaders FC | Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2024-01-12 | Crusaders FC | Larne | Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2023-12-15 | Crusaders FC | Larne | Premiership | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Crusaders FC vs Larne odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.0%, draw 18.2%, away 68.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.45 | 4.80 | 1.31 |
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 5.25 | 1.36 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 3.90 | 1.29 |
| Betano | 6.80 | 4.65 | 1.37 |
| Betfair | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.30 |
| Dafabet | 6.80 | 5.20 | 1.37 |
| Marathonbet | 7.10 | 4.80 | 1.30 |
| Pinnacle | 7.49 | 5.39 | 1.32 |
| William Hill | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.35 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .