Linfield
vs
Crusaders FC
1 – 0 Full time
| 47′ | K. Nelson | ||
| 59′ | D. WellsK. Millar | ||
| 64′ | I. Baird | ||
| 65′ | Crusaders FC | ||
| 70′ | K. Millar | ||
| 75′ | R. BrennanC. Shields | ||
| 84′ | K. NelsonS. Brown | ||
| 84′ | K. MooreC. Chapman |
Linfield vs Crusaders FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Linfield vs Crusaders FC
| Probability | Linfield | Draw | Crusaders FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.7% | 27.9% | 30.4% |
| Market | 72.8% | 16.8% | 10.4% |
| Final | 65.0% | 19.6% | 15.4% |
| Edge | -31.2% | +11.1% | +20.1% |
Why Linfield
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Linfield and Crusaders FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Linfield and Crusaders FC attack and defence ratings
Linfield
Crusaders FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Linfield vs Crusaders FC: result vs prediction
Linfield 1 – 0 Crusaders FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Linfield vs Crusaders FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Linfield | 65.0% | 1.54 | -31.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Linfield | 65.0% |
| Draw | 19.6% | |
| Crusaders FC | 15.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.1% |
| No | 43.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Linfield win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 58.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Linfield vs Crusaders FC stats
Linfield and Crusaders FC recent form
| Linfield |
DWWWWW |
| Crusaders FC |
WLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Linfield and Crusaders FC going into this match
Linfield record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crusaders FC record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Linfield vs Crusaders FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Crusaders FC | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Linfield | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Linfield | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-01 | Linfield | Crusaders FC | Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-07 | Crusaders FC | Linfield | Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2025-01-28 | Linfield | Crusaders FC | Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-12 | Crusaders FC | Linfield | Premiership | 2-3 |
| 2024-04-12 | Crusaders FC | Linfield | Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2024-01-20 | Linfield | Crusaders FC | Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-02 | Crusaders FC | Linfield | Premiership | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Linfield vs Crusaders FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.8%, draw 16.8%, away 10.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.22 | 5.60 | 9.35 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.20 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.29 | 5.10 | 8.25 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.21 | 5.60 | 8.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.27 | 6.32 | 8.88 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.80 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .