Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Caldas
vs
Sintrense
1 – 3 Full time
Caldas
54%
Draw
25%
Sintrense
21%
Caldas vs Sintrense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Caldas vs Sintrense
| Probability | Caldas | Draw | Sintrense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.9% | 25.3% | 20.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.9% | 25.3% | 20.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Caldas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 5 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
7%
Caldas and Sintrense expected goals
Caldas
1.80
Sintrense
1.05
Total expected goals: 2.85
Caldas and Sintrense attack and defence ratings
Caldas
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
0.73 -27%
Sintrense
Attack
1.01 +1%
Defence
1.12 +12%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Caldas vs Sintrense: result vs prediction
Caldas 1 – 3 Sintrense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Caldas vs Sintrense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caldas | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caldas | 53.9% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Sintrense | 20.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Caldas win | 31.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |