NEOM
vs
Al-Fateh
4 – 2 Full time
| 6′ | Khalil Al-Absi | ||
| 16′ | Alexandre Lacazette | ||
| 39′ | Amadou Koné | ||
| 41′ | Mourad Batna | ||
| 42′ | Mihai Lixandru | ||
| 45′ | Christophe Galtier | ||
| 45′ | Christophe Galtier | ||
| 51′ | Amadou Koné | ||
| 64′ | Wilfried Kanga | ||
| 65′ | Khalil Al-AbsiGeorgios Masouras | ||
| 70′ | Alexandre Lacazette | ||
| 75′ | Muhanad Al SaadValentín Vada | ||
| 76′ | Islam Ahmed HawsawiMohannad Abu Taha | ||
| 79′ | Valentín Vada | ||
| 81′ | Faisal AbdulwahedHossam Essadak | ||
| 81′ | Lukáš HaraslínFahad Al Zubaidi | ||
| 81′ | Sattam TumbuktiAbdul Rahman Al Khaibari | ||
| 81′ | Ali Al-HassanSaad Al-Shurafa | ||
| 87′ | Wilfried KangaJefferson Soares Oliveira Ramos | ||
| 90′ | Abdulmalik Al-OyayariKhalifah Al-Dawsari | ||
| 90′ | Alaa HejjiAbbas Al Hassan |
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 5 | Saves | 2 |
| 432 | Accurate passes | 220 |
NEOM vs Al-Fateh overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NEOM vs Al-Fateh
| Probability | NEOM | Draw | Al-Fateh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.9% | 33.0% | 16.0% |
| Market | 56.3% | 23.9% | 19.8% |
| Final | 55.0% | 26.2% | 18.9% |
| Edge | -5.4% | +9.2% | -3.8% |
Why NEOM
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NEOM and Al-Fateh expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.77
NEOM and Al-Fateh attack and defence ratings
NEOM
Al-Fateh
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
NEOM vs Al-Fateh: result vs prediction
NEOM 4 – 2 Al-Fateh
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
NEOM vs Al-Fateh markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEOM | 55.0% | 1.82 | -5.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEOM | 55.0% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Al-Fateh | 18.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.2% |
| No | 68.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEOM win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.3% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.5% |
| 0-0 | 18.2% | |
| 1-1 | 12.7% |
NEOM vs Al-Fateh stats
NEOM and Al-Fateh recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NEOM and Al-Fateh going into this match
NEOM record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Al-Fateh record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
NEOM vs Al-Fateh head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Al-Fateh | NEOM | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 2-2 |
| 2026-01-10 | NEOM | Al-Fateh | Saudi Arabia Pro League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NEOM vs Al-Fateh odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.2%, draw 23.9%, away 19.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 3.96 | 4.72 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 4.05 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 3.82 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.17 | 4.81 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.52 | 3.94 |
| Unibet | 1.74 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .