Renfrew
vs
Stirling Albion
Garuda Lions Prediction: Renfrew
3 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 2.34.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Renfrew vs Stirling Albion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Renfrew vs Stirling Albion
| Probability | Renfrew | Draw | Stirling Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.0% | 19.1% | 34.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.0% | 19.1% | 34.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Renfrew
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 2.34.
Renfrew vs Stirling Albion match preview
Renfrew faces Stirling Albion in the Scotland FA Cup with a predicted probability of 46% for a Renfrew victory, while Stirling Albion stands at 35% and a draw at 19%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 3-2 in favor of Renfrew, which aligns with the expectation of a high-scoring match, as indicated by an 87% probability of over 2.5 goals and an 84% chance for both teams to score.
In terms of expected goals, Renfrew is forecasted to score 2.65, while Stirling Albion is projected at 2.34. Renfrew comes into the match with a recent win, whereas Stirling Albion has a mixed form with one loss, two wins, and a draw in their last four matches. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Renfrew and Stirling Albion expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.99
Renfrew and Stirling Albion attack and defence ratings
Renfrew
Stirling Albion
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Renfrew vs Stirling Albion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Renfrew | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 84.4% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Renfrew | 46.0% |
| Draw | 19.1% | |
| Stirling Albion | 34.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 84.4% |
| No | 15.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Renfrew win | 29.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 54.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 6.5% |
| 3-2 | 5.8% | |
| 2-1 | 5.6% |
Renfrew vs Stirling Albion stats
Renfrew and Stirling Albion recent form
| Renfrew | W |
| Stirling Albion |
LWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.