Edinburgh City
vs
Kelty Hearts
Garuda Lions Prediction: Edinburgh City
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts
| Probability | Edinburgh City | Draw | Kelty Hearts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.7% | 28.5% | 28.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.7% | 28.5% | 28.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts match preview
Edinburgh City faces Kelty Hearts in the Scotland FA Cup, with kickoff set for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Edinburgh City has a 43% chance of winning, while both a draw and a Kelty Hearts victory are each at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Edinburgh City, with an expected goals tally of 1.45 for Edinburgh and 1.15 for Kelty Hearts.
Recent form shows Edinburgh City with a record of L-W-L-D, while Kelty Hearts has L-D-W-L. In their last ten encounters, Edinburgh City has secured 4 wins, with Kelty Hearts edging ahead with 5 wins and 1 draw. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with a 54% chance of both teams scoring and a 48% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts attack and defence ratings
Edinburgh City
Kelty Hearts
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Edinburgh City | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Edinburgh City | 42.7% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Kelty Hearts | 28.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% |
| No | 46.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Edinburgh City win | 21.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 57.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.0% |
Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts stats
Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts recent form
| Edinburgh City |
LWLD |
| Kelty Hearts |
LDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.
Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Kelty Hearts | Edinburgh City | League Two | 1-3 |
| 2024-03-30 | Kelty Hearts | Edinburgh City | League One | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-13 | Kelty Hearts | Edinburgh City | League One | 3-2 |
| 2024-02-03 | Edinburgh City | Kelty Hearts | League One | 0-3 |
| 2023-10-07 | Edinburgh City | Kelty Hearts | League One | 1-4 |
| 2023-07-19 | Edinburgh City | Kelty Hearts | League Cup | 3-5 |
| 2023-04-22 | Edinburgh City | Kelty Hearts | League One | 2-2 |
| 2023-03-04 | Kelty Hearts | Edinburgh City | League One | 1-2 |
| 2022-10-08 | Edinburgh City | Kelty Hearts | League One | 2-0 |
| 2022-07-30 | Kelty Hearts | Edinburgh City | League One | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.