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Scotland FA Cup · Full time ·Round of 128

Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts

4 – 1 Full time

22′T. North
40′I. Lawson
69′M. Falconer
79′M. Aiken
90′K. Foster
Edinburgh City 39%
Draw 27%
Kelty Hearts 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEdinburgh CityDrawKelty Hearts
Model42.7%28.5%28.8%
Market38.1%26.1%35.8%
Final39.2%26.7%34.1%
Edge+1.2%+0.6%-1.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Edinburgh City ↓ / Kelty Hearts → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 7% 1 10% 14% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts expected goals

Edinburgh City 1.45
Kelty Hearts 1.15

Total expected goals: 2.60

Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts attack and defence ratings

Edinburgh City

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Kelty Hearts

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts: result vs prediction

Edinburgh City 4 – 1 Kelty Hearts

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Scotland FA Cup

Before and after this match

Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Edinburgh City 39.2% 2.55 +1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.8% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.6% 1.87 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.3% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.3% 1.75 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Edinburgh City39.2%
Draw26.7%
Kelty Hearts34.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.2%
Under 2.551.8%
Both teams to scoreYes53.6%
No46.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.9%
12 (either side)73.3%
X2 (draw or away)60.8%
Handicap -1Edinburgh City win21.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.4%
Loss57.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
1-09.5%
2-19.0%

Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts stats

Edinburgh City and Kelty Hearts recent form

newest first
Edinburgh City LWLD
Kelty Hearts LDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Edinburgh City wins 1Draws 5Kelty Hearts wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-19Kelty HeartsEdinburgh CityLeague Two1-3
2024-03-30Kelty HeartsEdinburgh CityLeague One3-1
2024-02-13Kelty HeartsEdinburgh CityLeague One3-2
2024-02-03Edinburgh CityKelty HeartsLeague One0-3
2023-10-07Edinburgh CityKelty HeartsLeague One1-4
2023-07-19Edinburgh CityKelty HeartsLeague Cup3-5
2023-04-22Edinburgh CityKelty HeartsLeague One2-2
2023-03-04Kelty HeartsEdinburgh CityLeague One1-2
2022-10-08Edinburgh CityKelty HeartsLeague One2-0
2022-07-30Kelty HeartsEdinburgh CityLeague One0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 26.1%, away 35.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.35 3.45 2.48
Bet365 2.30 3.60 2.50
BetVictor 2.40 3.50 2.55
Betfair 2.40 3.70 2.55
Dafabet 2.43 3.85 2.65
Marathonbet 2.35 3.45 2.48
William Hill 2.40 3.40 2.62

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.