Scotland FA Cup
·
Full time
·Round of 128
Dumbarton
vs
Keith
1 – 0 Full time
| 73′ | L. McIntosh |
Dumbarton
41%
Draw
25%
Keith
35%
Dumbarton vs Keith overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dumbarton vs Keith
| Probability | Dumbarton | Draw | Keith |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.6% | 24.7% | 34.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.6% | 24.7% | 34.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Dumbarton
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
65%
No goals
4%
Dumbarton and Keith expected goals
Dumbarton
1.75
Keith
1.61
Total expected goals: 3.36
Dumbarton and Keith attack and defence ratings
Dumbarton
Attack
0.92 -8%
Defence
1.28 +28%
Keith
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.01 +1%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Dumbarton vs Keith: result vs prediction
Dumbarton 1 – 0 Keith
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 128 fixtures
- Brechin vs Strathspey Thistle
- Edinburgh City v Kelty Hearts — match page
- Bo'ness United vs Forfar Athletic — team news & stats
- Lochee United vs Spartans — team news & stats
- Brora Rangers v Cowdenbeath — match page
- Stranraer vs Tayport — team news & stats
- Gretna 2008 v Cumnock Juniors — match page
- Stirling University vs Elgin City — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Dumbarton vs Keith markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dumbarton | 40.6% | 2.47 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dumbarton | 40.6% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Keith | 34.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% |
| No | 32.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dumbarton win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 59.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Dumbarton vs Keith stats
Dumbarton and Keith recent form
| Dumbarton |
LWLW |
| Keith |
WLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.