Dumbarton
vs
Keith
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dumbarton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Dumbarton vs Keith overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dumbarton vs Keith
| Probability | Dumbarton | Draw | Keith |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.6% | 24.7% | 34.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.6% | 24.7% | 34.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Dumbarton
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
Dumbarton vs Keith match preview
Dumbarton faces Keith in the Scotland FA Cup with a forecasted probability of 41% for a home win, while Keith has a 35% chance of victory and a 25% likelihood of a draw. The most probable scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Dumbarton, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to contribute to an exciting match, with a 67% chance for both teams to score and a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored.
In terms of expected goals, Dumbarton is estimated to score 1.75, while Keith is projected at 1.61. Recent form shows Dumbarton with a mixed record of L-W-L-W, while Keith has a slightly better trend with W-L-L-D. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dumbarton and Keith expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.36
Dumbarton and Keith attack and defence ratings
Dumbarton
Keith
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Dumbarton vs Keith markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dumbarton | 40.6% | 2.47 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dumbarton | 40.6% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Keith | 34.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% |
| No | 32.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dumbarton win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 59.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Dumbarton vs Keith stats
Dumbarton and Keith recent form
| Dumbarton |
LWLW |
| Keith |
WLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.