Dumbarton
vs
Johnstone Burgh
Garuda Lions Prediction: Johnstone Burgh
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Dumbarton vs Johnstone Burgh overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dumbarton vs Johnstone Burgh
| Probability | Dumbarton | Draw | Johnstone Burgh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.0% | 25.4% | 51.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.0% | 25.4% | 51.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Johnstone Burgh
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.14.
Dumbarton vs Johnstone Burgh match preview
Dumbarton faces Johnstone Burgh in the Scotland FA Cup with a probability model suggesting a competitive match. Johnstone Burgh is favored with a 52% chance of victory, while Dumbarton has a 23% chance, and a draw stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.14 for Dumbarton and 1.79 for Johnstone Burgh.
Both teams have shown recent form that indicates potential for goals, with a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score. Dumbarton enters the match with a record of W-L-W-L-W, while Johnstone Burgh has a recent form of W-W-L-W. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating moderate certainty in the model's projections.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dumbarton and Johnstone Burgh expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Dumbarton and Johnstone Burgh attack and defence ratings
Dumbarton
Johnstone Burgh
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Ross County v Brora Rangers — match page
- Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers — team news & stats
- Queen of the South vs Dunfermline
- Montrose v Hamilton Academical — match page
- Annan Athletic vs Morton — team news & stats
- Elgin City vs Partick
- Peterhead v Edinburgh City — match page
- Queen's Park vs Spartans — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Dumbarton vs Johnstone Burgh markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Johnstone Burgh | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dumbarton | 23.0% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Johnstone Burgh | 51.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Johnstone Burgh win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 48.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.6% |
Dumbarton vs Johnstone Burgh stats
Dumbarton and Johnstone Burgh recent form
| Dumbarton |
WLWLW |
| Johnstone Burgh |
WWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.