Scotland Premiership
·
Postponed
·Matchday 12
Dundee Utd
vs
Heart Of Midlothian
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dundee Utd
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.28.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Dundee Utd
49%
Draw
24%
Heart Of Midlothian
26%
Chance Dundee Utd wins
49%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
64%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes
Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian
| Probability | Dundee Utd | Draw | Heart Of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.2% | 24.5% | 26.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.2% | 24.5% | 26.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Dundee Utd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
66%
No goals
4%
Dundee Utd and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals
Dundee Utd
2.10
Heart Of Midlothian
1.28
Total expected goals: 3.37
Dundee Utd and Heart Of Midlothian attack and defence ratings
Dundee Utd
Attack
1.01 +1%
Defence
0.94 -6%
Heart Of Midlothian
Attack
1.14 +14%
Defence
1.33 +33%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee Utd | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee Utd | 49.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 26.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dundee Utd win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian stats
Dundee Utd and Heart Of Midlothian recent form
| Dundee Utd |
WDWWDL |
| Heart Of Midlothian |
LLDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dundee Utd and Heart Of Midlothian season so far
Dundee Utd record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heart Of Midlothian record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
0Dundee Utd wins
1Draws
3Heart Of Midlothian wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Heart Of Midlothian | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Dundee Utd | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership | 0-3 |
| 2025-11-09 | Heart Of Midlothian | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Dundee Utd | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.