Amorebieta
vs
UD Logroñés
Garuda Lions Prediction: UD Logroñés
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.82.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés
| Probability | Amorebieta | Draw | UD Logroñés |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.9% | 25.3% | 58.8% |
| Market | 28.4% | 27.0% | 44.6% |
| Final | 25.3% | 26.6% | 48.1% |
| Edge | -3.1% | -0.4% | +3.6% |
Why UD Logroñés
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 4 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices UD Logroñés below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.1% per unit staked (our 48.1% × 2.10 − 1).
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés match preview
Amorebieta faces UD Logroñés in the Copa del Rey with a kickoff set for November 10, 2026. According to our model, Amorebieta has a 25% chance of winning, while UD Logroñés holds a 48% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with expected goals of 0.82 for Amorebieta and 1.77 for UD Logroñés. Recent form shows Amorebieta lost their last match, while UD Logroñés has a record of one win, two draws, and one loss in their last four games.
In terms of scoring, our model indicates a 48% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. The head-to-head record over the last eight encounters shows Amorebieta with three wins, three draws, and two victories for UD Logroñés. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Amorebieta and UD Logroñés expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Amorebieta and UD Logroñés attack and defence ratings
Amorebieta
UD Logroñés
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UD Logroñés | 48.1% | 2.08 | +3.6% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amorebieta | 25.3% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| UD Logroñés | 48.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.4% |
| No | 52.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | UD Logroñés win | 34.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 41.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | |
| 0-2 | 11.8% |
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés stats
Amorebieta and UD Logroñés recent form
| Amorebieta |
L |
| UD Logroñés |
LDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | UD Logroñés | Amorebieta | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Amorebieta | UD Logroñés | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-23 | Amorebieta | UD Logroñés | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 1-0 |
| 2022-11-27 | UD Logroñés | Amorebieta | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 1-1 |
| 2021-07-24 | Amorebieta | UD Logroñés | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2020-12-16 | Amorebieta | UD Logroñés | Copa del Rey | 1-0 |
| 2020-03-08 | UD Logroñés | Amorebieta | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 1-1 |
| 2019-10-19 | Amorebieta | UD Logroñés | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.4%, draw 27.0%, away 44.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.28 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.60 | 2.09 |
| Marathonbet | 3.28 | 3.45 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.26 | 3.38 | 2.07 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .