Amorebieta
vs
UD Logroñés
Garuda Lions Prediction: UD Logroñés
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés
| Probability | Amorebieta | Draw | UD Logroñés |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.0% | 26.4% | 55.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 18.0% | 26.4% | 55.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why UD Logroñés
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 4 vs 0 for the opposition.
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés match preview
Amorebieta faces UD Logroñés in the Copa del Rey, with the model predicting a 56% likelihood of a victory for the visitors. The most probable scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 12%. Amorebieta has struggled recently, recording a loss in their latest match, while UD Logroñés has shown a mixed form with one win and two draws in their last three games.
In terms of expected goals, Amorebieta is forecasted to score 0.86, while UD Logroñés is projected to net 1.68. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 47%, and both teams are expected to score at a rate of 48%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Amorebieta and UD Logroñés expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Amorebieta and UD Logroñés attack and defence ratings
Amorebieta
UD Logroñés
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
- Numancia vs Real Oviedo — team news & stats
- Badajoz v Tenerife — match page
- Covadonga vs Real Valladolid — team news & stats
- Alcoyano vs Mallorca
- Trival Valderas v Leganes — match page
- Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete — team news & stats
- Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén
- Gimnástica Torrelavega v UD Ourense — match page
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UD Logroñés | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amorebieta | 18.0% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| UD Logroñés | 55.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | UD Logroñés win | 31.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 44.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 0-1 | 12.1% | |
| 0-2 | 11.1% |
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés stats
Amorebieta and UD Logroñés recent form
| Amorebieta |
L |
| UD Logroñés |
LDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.