Mijas Las Lagunas
vs
Real Jaén
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Jaén
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Real Jaén is the favourite, not a value bet.
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén
| Probability | Mijas Las Lagunas | Draw | Real Jaén |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.4% | 25.5% | 40.2% |
| Market | 23.7% | 26.9% | 49.5% |
| Final | 26.3% | 26.5% | 47.1% |
| Edge | +2.7% | -0.4% | -2.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.5% per unit staked (our 47.1% × 1.92 − 1).
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén match preview
Mijas Las Lagunas faces Real Jaén in the Copa del Rey with a kickoff scheduled for November 10, 2026. According to our model, Mijas Las Lagunas has a 26% probability of winning, while Real Jaén holds a 47% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 62% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of expected goals, Mijas Las Lagunas is projected to score 1.53, while Real Jaén is expected to net 1.67. Recent form shows Real Jaén with two consecutive losses, while Mijas Las Lagunas's recent performance is not available. In their last two encounters, Mijas Las Lagunas has secured 1 win and 1 draw against Real Jaén, who has yet to win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mijas Las Lagunas and Real Jaén expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Mijas Las Lagunas and Real Jaén attack and defence ratings
Mijas Las Lagunas
Real Jaén
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Jaén | 47.1% | 2.12 | -2.3% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 26.3% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Real Jaén | 47.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% |
| No | 35.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Jaén win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 59.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén stats
Mijas Las Lagunas and Real Jaén recent form
| Mijas Las Lagunas |
no matches on record |
| Real Jaén |
LL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Mijas Las Lagunas | Real Jaén | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 | 3-0 |
| 2024-09-08 | Real Jaén | Mijas Las Lagunas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.7%, draw 26.9%, away 49.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.93 | 3.46 | 1.90 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.70 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.35 | 1.85 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 3.94 | 3.46 | 1.88 |
| Pinnacle | 3.74 | 3.38 | 1.92 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .