Navalcarnero
vs
Real Betis
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Betis
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.10.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Real Betis is the favourite, not a value bet.
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Navalcarnero vs Real Betis
| Probability | Navalcarnero | Draw | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.1% | 20.6% | 63.3% |
| Market | 6.1% | 11.5% | 82.5% |
| Final | 8.6% | 13.8% | 77.7% |
| Edge | +2.5% | +2.3% | -4.8% |
Why Real Betis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.4% per unit staked (our 77.7% × 1.14 − 1).
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis match preview
Navalcarnero faces Real Betis in the Copa del Rey with a significant disparity in expected performance. Our model gives Navalcarnero a 9% chance of winning, while Real Betis stands at 77%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an expected goals total of 1.10 for Navalcarnero and 2.30 for Real Betis.
Recent form shows Navalcarnero with a mixed result of one win followed by a loss, while Real Betis has recorded three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 66%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 61%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Navalcarnero and Real Betis expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Navalcarnero and Real Betis attack and defence ratings
Navalcarnero
Real Betis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Betis | 77.7% | 1.29 | -4.8% | 1.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 91.4% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Real Betis win | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Navalcarnero | 8.6% |
| Draw | 13.8% | |
| Real Betis | 77.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% |
| No | 39.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 22.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 91.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Betis win | 41.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 36.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | |
| 0-2 | 8.8% |
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis stats
Navalcarnero and Real Betis recent form
| Navalcarnero |
LW |
| Real Betis |
WLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 6.1%, draw 11.5%, away 82.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 13.00 | 8.10 | 1.14 |
| Bet365 | 17.00 | 9.50 | 1.11 |
| BetVictor | 15.00 | 8.00 | 1.11 |
| Betano | 15.50 | 7.50 | 1.12 |
| Betfair | 29.00 | 11.00 | 1.08 |
| Dafabet | 21.00 | 10.00 | 1.12 |
| Marathonbet | 13.00 | 8.10 | 1.14 |
| Pinnacle | 10.42 | 7.84 | 1.12 |
| SBO | 12.04 | 7.53 | 1.09 |
| William Hill | 17.00 | 8.00 | 1.12 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .